The USD is trading slightly lower across the board, as the June NFP showed that the US added 223,000 jobs, below expectations, whilst wages were unchanged from the previous month. Unemployment though recorded a 7 year low of 5.3%.

Overnight, Australian Retail sales grew by a mere 0.3% versus 0.5% expected. As a result AUDUSD was sold off and traded as low as 0.7569.

EURUSD is trading at 1.1090 as it rebounded from 1.1030 post NFP. JPMorgan states that a possible break of this level could create a new downwards trend towards 1.0744/1.0692.

Today is a US holiday (Independence Day) and trading will be thin as liquidity will be subdued. With the Greek referendum to take place on Sunday, it is very likely that markets will be calm as investors are unlikely to be willing to take any risks ahead of such a risk event (remember last week’s gap?).

UK and EU Services PMI and EZ Retail Sales will be released in the European Session, however headlines from Greece will be closely watched and as always can create big market moves.

Trading quote of the Day:

“Never base your trading decisions on advice from people who don’t have to deal with the results”

Green lines are resistance, Red lines are support

EURUSD

Pivot: 1.112

Likely scenario: Short positions below 1.112 with targets @ 1.103 & 1.098 in extension.

Alternative scenario: Above 1.112 look for further upside with 1.1155 & 1.121 as targets.

Comment: As long as 1.112 is resistance, likely decline to 1.103.

GBPUSD

Pivot: 1.564

Likely scenario: Short positions below 1.564 with targets @ 1.556 & 1.554 in extension.

Alternative scenario: Above 1.564 look for further upside with 1.568 & 1.574 as targets.

Comment: As long as the resistance at 1.564 is not surpassed, the risk of the break below 1.556 remains

AUDUSD

Pivot: 0.7625

Likely scenario: Short positions below 0.7625 with targets @ 0.7565 & 0.7535 in extension.

Alternative scenario: Above 0.7625 look for further upside with 0.765 & 0.7675 as targets.

Comment: A break below 0.7565 would trigger a drop towards 0.7535.

USDJPY

Pivot: 123.25

Likely scenario: Short positions below 123.25 with targets @ 122.6 & 122.35 in extension.

Alternative scenario: Above 123.25 look for further upside with 123.7 & 124 as targets.

Comment: The upward potential is likely to be limited by the resistance at 123.25.

USDCAD

Pivot: 1.2595

Likely scenario: Short positions below 1.2595 with targets @ 1.251 & 1.247 in extension.

Alternative scenario: Above 1.2595 look for further upside with 1.263 & 1.267 as targets.

Comment: As long as 1.2595 is resistance, look for choppy price action with a bearish bias.

USDCHF

Pivot: 0.95

Likely scenario: Short positions below 0.95 with targets @ 0.94 & 0.936 in extension.

Alternative scenario: Above 0.95 look for further upside with 0.954 & 0.957 as targets.

Comment: A break below 0.94 would trigger a drop towards 0.936.

GOLD

Pivot: 1169

Likely scenario: Short positions below 1169 with targets @ 1160 & 1156.3 in extension.

Alternative scenario: Above 1169 look for further upside with 1175 & 1180.5 as targets.

Comment: The index currently faces a challenging resistance area at 1169.

OIL

Pivot: 58

Likely scenario: Short positions below 58 with targets @ 55.8 & 55.25 in extension.

Alternative scenario: Above 58 look for further upside with 58.95 & 59.7 as targets.

Comment: The break below 58 is a negative signal that has opened a path to 55.8.

DAX

Pivot: 10800

Likely scenario: Long positions above 10800 with targets @ 11285 & 11380 in extension.

Alternative scenario: Below 10800 look for further downside with 10640 & 10435 as targets.

Comment: The RSI is mixed to bullish.