Earnings Watch: Analysts Express Confidence In J.C. Penney CEO Ahead Of Earnings
J.C. Penney (JCP) is scheduled to fourth quarter earnings before the market opens on Friday, February 26 with a conference call scheduled for 8:30 am ET. J.C. Penney operates about 1,100 retail stores and jcp.com.
EXPECTATIONS: Analysts are looking for earnings per share of 23c on revenue of $3.99B, according to First Call. The consensus range for EPS is 18c-28c on revenue of $3.92B-$4.09B.
LAST QUARTER: J.C. Penney reported third quarter adjusted earnings per share of (47c) on revenue of $2.9B, slightly beating estimates for (55c) and $2.88B, respectively. Comparable store sales were up 6.4% in the quarter. The retailer backed its fiscal year 2015 same-store sales view of up 4%-5% and forecast FY15 adjusted EBITDA of approximately $615M, down from its prior view of about $620M. The company also backed its FY15 gross margin view of a 100-150 basis point improvement. On its earnings conference call, J.C. Penney CEO Marvin Ellison forecast Q4 SSS "in-line" with full year expectations and said he was still forecasting breakeven free cash flow for FY15. NEWS: During the quarter, J.C. Penney named Therace Risch as Chief Information Officer, succeeding Scott Laverty, and appointed former Home Depot (HD) executive Joe McFarland as executive VP of stores, succeeding Tony Bartlett. The retailer said its November and December period SSS increased 3.9% and reaffirmed its FY15 adjusted EBITDA target of $645M and plans to generate positive free cash flow in FY15. A spokesperson told Bloomberg that the company planned to close seven stores, which represented less than 1% of its store base. J.C. Penney announced that it would introduce an assortment of major appliances in 22 pilot stores beginning February 1 and said it would pursue the potential sale and partial leaseback of its Home Office building in Plano, Texas as part of an ongoing effort to reduce outstanding debt and effectively manage expenses. The Dallas Morning News recently said J.C. Penney will sell items for 1c as part of a new marketing strategy.
STREET RESEARCH: In early January, Baird analyst Mark Altschwager said he was encouraged by J.C. Penney's holiday comparable sales rise of 3.9%, which he said was roughly in-line with expectations and believes should be enough to satisfy low expectations. During the quarter, Credit Suisse upgraded J.C. Penney to Neutral from Underperform and OTR Global upgraded the stock to Mixed from Negative. On February 2, Piper Jaffray analyst Neely Tamminga reiterated J.C. Penney as a top pick for 2016 and expressed confidence in Ellison's leadership. Ahead of J.C. Penney's Q4 earnings report, Cowen analyst Oliver Chen initiated J.C. Penney with a Market Perform and $8 price target on shares. The analyst said CEO Ellison is making the right changes to drive better comps and margins but the risks are too much to ignore, including the shift by consumers away from department stores, high leverage, and lack of conviction in margin expansion and sustainable growth.
PRICE ACTION: Over the last three months, J.C. Penney shares are down over 5%, but are up over 1.6% in morning trading ahead of Friday's Q4 report.
Disclosure: None.