Tuesday, October 25, 2016 11:10 AM EDT
After the weekly breakout at 96.50, the Dollar index has managed to reach very close to the 99 level. Dollar strength remains impressive supported by increased chances of a rate hike in December and by the demise of the Euro. Technically speaking the Dollar index is approaching important resistance levels (at 99.50 the upper channel resistance) and is also providing bearish divergence signals warning for an impending pull back.
(Click on image to enlarge)
(Click on image to enlarge)
In the 4 hour chart, the Dollar index remains inside the bullish channel and above the Ichimoku cloud. However, both RSI and Stochastic oscillator are giving bearish divergence signals. Soon the bullish channel will be broken and the Ichimoku cloud support will be tested. In the first (weekly) chart, the index is trading inside a trading range and is approaching the upper boundary of the range. This is the 99.50 level where important resistance is found. I do not believe we will reach that level, instead, I expect a reversal to occur sooner. Important weekly support is at 96-95. As long as the Dollar index is above this area the expected pullback could be a buying opportunity. However, Elliott wave wise the form of the rise is not impulsive. In other words, the form of the rise from 91.90 makes me believe that we are still in a corrective phase and that this uptrend could reverse into a bigger correction that will challenge the lower channel boundary.
What could lead to such Dollar weakness? ECB potential tapering of the QE program from December and postponing the rate hike by Yellen could be good enough reasons for a possible sell-off in the Dollar index. The devaluation of YUAN and the result of the USA elections could also play a big part on the decision-making process for both FED and ECB regarding the big questions regarding their strategy ahead.
One thing, however, is common regardless of the bigger picture. A pull back towards 96.50-97 is highly probable from current levels or a little bit higher. Bulls need to be cautious. We still have no bearish reversal confirmation. I’m short the Dollar index.
Disclaimer: All persons and entities contributing to ...
more
Disclaimer: All persons and entities contributing to the content on this website, and their representatives, agents, and affiliates are not providing investment or legal advice on this website. Nor are they making recommendations with respect to the advisability of investing in, purchasing or selling securities, nor are they rendering any advice on the basis of the specific investment situation of any particular person or organization. All information on this website is strictly informational and not to be construed as advocating, promoting or advertising registered or unregistered investments of any kind whatsoever. The sole purpose of the contents of this website, and any oral or written presentation in any way referring to or relating to this website, is to provide information which could possibly be used by a person in discussions with his/her/its investment advisors and/or investment decision makers.
Trading2day.com (hereinafter T2D) is not an investment firm, and its employees, agents or representatives are not acting as investment advisors. The investment information, including (without limitation) any investment suggestions, provided on this website are not a substitute for the advice of an investment advisor. T2D is not responsible for the accuracy of any information on this website or for reviewing the contents of the listings that are provided by the listees or any linked websites, and T2D is not responsible for any material or information contained in the linked websites or provided by listees. You should make your own independent investigation and evaluation of any possible investment or investment advice being considered.
The information provided on this website is not guaranteed to be correct, complete, or current. T2D makes no warranty, express or implied, about the accuracy or reliability of the information on this website or at any other website to which this site is linked. If you use any links to other websites, you do so at your own risk. T2D is not responsible for the contents or availability of any linked websites. These links are provided only as a convenience to you.
Any information that you send us in an e-mail message is not confidential or privileged, and T2D may use any information provided to us for any legal purpose.
T2D is not responsible for any loss, injury, claim, liability, or damage related to your use of this website or any website linked to this website, whether from errors or omissions in the content of our website or any other linked websites, from the website being down or from any other use of the website. Your use of the site is at your own risk. Day trading, short term trading, Options Trading, and Futures Trading are extremely risky undertakings. They generally are not appropriate for someone with limited capital, little or no trading experience, and/or low risk tolerance. Never execute a trade unless you can afford, and are prepared to, lose your entire investment. All trading operations involve serious risks, and you can lose your entire investment. Always perform your own due diligence and make informed decisions with the help of a licensed financial professional. We make no warranties or guarantees as to our accuracy, the profitability of any trades which are discussed, or any other guarantees or warranties of any kind.
less
How did you like this article? Let us know so we can better customize your reading experience.