Does A Snowball Have A Chance In Hell?

mdaily20170201

Are you a trader or investor who believes the market is heading to 30,000 or 10,000?

I can have a lot of fun with “hell” and its plethora of clichés. The Road to Hell, Hell in a Handbasket, Hot as Hell, and most apropos-A Snowball’s Chance in Hell.”

We clearly have a bull market paved with good (and not so good) intentions. Going to Hell in a Handbasket implies a course for disaster. Hot as Hell-no explanation needed.

All the above can apply to the current market.

A Snowball’s Chance in Hell, perfectly states the bull’s position of “not a chance,” of a selloff while implying the absurdity of its hyperbole.

Two technical signals suggest a snowball has shown up.

The declining U.S. dollar, softening of treasury yields and a run into utilities, which all suggest a flight to safety has begun.

Secondly, the S&P 500 seems to have established the island top.

Of course, the SPY could rally from here.

Yet, unless SPY regains a move over 228.34, will a snowball get that chance in hell? Or worse, can hell finally freeze over?

Another day of hinging on President Trump’s projected and potentially enacted policies, Biotechnology (IBB) rose on the hopes that deregulation will benefit their corporate bottom line.

Trump expressed his dismay at high drug prices. Putting on my consumer rather than trader’s hat, is his intention nothing more than what paves the way to you know where? Big Pharma must do its part.

Technically, IBB cleared resistance. The 200 daily moving average, a line in the sand many institutional buyers watch, must hold to keep our big brother going.

Biotechnology is an integral part of the Modern Family. In the past, he has served as a leader. Back in 2010, IBB got the rally started. Until its peak in price in June 2015, speculators participated big time.

Therefore, should Big Brother return, the bulls banking on a snowball’s chance can happily sweat out more upside.

Granny Retail (XRT), mom and weak-link brethren of her Biotech son, began the day looking like she was traveling the “Highway to Hell.” By the end of the session, possibly encouraged by IBB’s move, she fought like hell to move higher.

Retail confirmed yesterday’s reversal pattern with better than average daily volume.

Like a bat out of hell, Granddad Russell 2000 closed green. Given IWM’s return over the 50 DMA and back into an unconfirmed bullish phase, today’s strength should scare the hell out of the Bears.

Last night’s theme presumed that for the rally to continue, the fire rooster needed to embody its genetic memories of the powerful dinosaur it evolved from.

Tonight, the fire rooster took the pill that makes you larger. “Hell hath no fury” like a poultry scorned!

S&P 500 (SPY) Between 228.51 and 228.34 sits the gap. Watching to see if it gets filled or not

Russell 2000 (IWM) 138 key resistance, 135.50 pivotal and 133.50 key support

Dow (DIA) Let’s see if can get through 199 and then 200. Today’s low key support.

Nasdaq (QQQ) Held the 10 DMA making 124.30 pivotal

KRE (Regional Banks) Not much unless it breaks 54.58 or gets back over 56 and holds

SMH (SemiconductorsSo far, looks like a normal correction.

IYT (Transportation) 171.16 the high. Must take that out to keep going. 164.50 area key support held

IBB (Biotechnology) Such a perfect example of how hard it is to sort the hype from reality. Cleared back into an unconfirmed accumulation phase. 275-277 now support if good

XRT (Retail) 43.90-44.20 next resistance.

IYR (Real Estate) 76.34 the month moving average like to see hold if good. And over 78.25 better

GLD (Gold Trust) 114.90 now the pivotal support

SLV (Silver) Cleared 16.50 now pivotal

GDX (Gold Miners) 24.20 resistance

USO (US Oil Fund) Dancing on the 50 DMA

TLT (iShares 20+ Year Treasuries) FOMC Wednesday

UUP (Dollar Bull25.80 resistance and 25.67 support

FXI (China) 36.24 the 50 DMA to hold. Still looks good

Disclosure: None. 

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Moon Kil Woong 7 years ago Contributor's comment

The snowball is a big bully named #Trump who got into office talking about getting government out of business and is instead injecting government into it. We still await real measures that cut bureaucracy, taxes, etc. Even so, talking up and down stocks in an irate fashion by the President and implying threats to do things is causing chaos the longer it continues.

Michele Schneider 7 years ago Contributor's comment

It has made for a lot of stress emotionally and hesitation financially...welcome to the new order-Uncertainty is the new sure thing.

Chee Hin Teh 7 years ago Member's comment

Thanks dearest. I am no Warren Buffet. I rather be a trader. Best regards