Monday Market Commentary - November 21, 2016

Stocks - The rally in the Dow Jones index slowed last week. The chart formation is showing a triangle with the forecast for another upside move this week or next. Thanksgiving is this Thursday with trade volume expected to slow later in the week. Stocks will be trading again on the 25th but only in the morning session. Current Dow index support is 18,500 to 18,675. Current SP500 support is 2,125 to 2,150 with resistance at it's record high of 2,193.81. The Nasdaq and small caps have been weaker than the Dow and SP500 suggesting non-confirmation of this upside move of the major market indexes.

Bonds - The 30 Year US T-Bond continued to sell-off last week, Further weakness is possible but with this extremely oversold condition currently look for an upside bounce. 153 might find support now and if it doesn't watch the 147 area for the next support. Anything above 155 would be another low-risk high-reward price area to sell short again.

US Dollar Index - The US Dollar index has now rallied to the 101 plus price area now completed the forecasted price move. Very strong trader sentiment psychology indicators show the overbought optimism in the market suggesting top may be near at least short term. If the USD index does move higher, upside resistance is 101.797 to 102.150. Longer term the forecast is unclear yet until more daily price action can be seen. 

Gold - Gold is showing some strength now after its recent sell-off. Major resistance is now 1,337.81. Psychology and sentiment for precious metals have been very negative short-term suggesting a bottom may be forming for some upside potential. The gold market could possibly see prices head higher again above 1,337,81.53 possibly heading to 1,434 to 1,500. Major gold support is 1,180 to 1,200.