Correction Territory – Time To Panic!

I was waiting patiently and then Thursday afternoon it happened. With the Nasdaq passing a 9% decline from its peak, there it was.

“Nasdaq approaches correction territory.”

I bet those financial journalists had that queued up for the past week – you know, the day after the Dow hit its all-time high. After all, this bull market is ancient and we had to see big decline. What’s a new all-time high (boring) when finally being able to spew the salacious headline of “correction territory.”

Hamburger to a stray dog.

Failure to the NY Giants.

We all know that “correction territory” is when an index falls by 10%. But do we? What if that 10% drop came after the market just kissed the top of a year-long trading range? Was that a correction? What did it correct? A trading range?

And what if it only fell 9.9%? How about that?

Or what if the index gained more than 80% from its last significant bottom (Feb 2016) and then gave back 23% of that run?

I’ll invoke Col., Sherman T. Potter, again – horse-hockey!

An index reaching correction territory sounds like investors should panic. Since its a correction, we should sell.But then again, it just corrected and that’s what happens in bull markets. If the bottom is not in then it will be more than a correction and that means it’s a bear market.

So which is it, your pundit-ness?

Let’s talk about a few things that are infinitely more useful.

First, the market is oversold. Of course, it was oversold in February before the bottom was found so this is just a condition, not a signal.

Second, the advance-decline was falling before price and that was information. But now they are falling together so there is no real information there at this time. If anything, it keeps the bears in charge.

Third, the number of NYSE stocks hitting new 42-week lows peaked at 526 this week. That’s 17.2% of all NYSE stocks. Is that big enough for a bottom? I’m not so sure. However, we have to keep in mind that the market is only a week removed from 52-week highs (depending on the index).To me, that is extreme in new lows.

Fourth, the percentage of NYSE stocks below their 200-day averages is down around 32%. That’s well below the level from February but not exactly extreme, as it was in early 2016 at 15%.

Fifth, the percentage of stocks below their 50-day averages is comparable with other bottoms, which again makes me think this is a short-term bottom and not THE bottom.

Sixth, you can argue with me but I see the Dow Theory buy signal as still being intact.

Seventh, gold is still sucking wind. Where is the hedge against volatile times? Not there.

Eighth, while interest rates did break out, I view this as a good thing for the economy and therefore for stocks. I’ll qualify that by saying, it is good until its not. Again, a short-term bottom signal.

Ninth, there is still too much good news on the economy out there so it’s hard to doubt the bull, again, for now.

Tenth, my prediction months ago was a dip and then a peak in the first half of 2019.Still sticking with that.

With all that said, the market tone has changed. And rather than BTFD, it will soon be time for STFR.

Disclosure: No positions in anything covered.

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Duke Peters 5 years ago Member's comment

Wowzers! Scary.