Cold Keeps Winter Natural Gas Bid

It was another very volatile day in the natural gas market, as we saw prices shoot higher overnight on colder model guidance before pulling back through much of the day on profit-taking and impressive supply growth with the November contract settling right around flat. 

(Click on image to enlarge)

natural gas commodity weather

While the November contract sold off quite a bit on the day, the winter strip was far more firm, with the January contract easily logging the largest gain. 

natural gas commodity weather

The result was a large move wider in the X/F November/January spread after it narrowed significantly and consistently the last couple of weeks. 

(Click on image to enlarge)

natural gas commodity weather

The reversal through the day marked another day in the natural gas market with a large trading range relative to what we saw through much of the summer, as the 5-day average trading range has closed in on 12 cents. 

natural gas commodity weather

Continued cold risks have certainly helped, as the Climate Prediction Center increases them again in the 8-14 Day period. 

natural gas commodity weather

We maintained our Slightly Bullish sentiment and highlighted that "short-term dips remain buying opportunities" like today's dip turned out to be. 

natural gas commodity weather

A look at how the front of the natural gas strip had blown out over the past month:

natural gas commodity weather

 

Disclaimer: To begin receiving both our technical and fundamental analysis of the natural gas market on a daily basis, and view our various models breaking down weather by natural gas demand ...

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Moon Kil Woong 5 years ago Contributor's comment

This is larger than the seasonal norm. I think a lot of it has to do with China and Asia accruing as much gas and LNG as they can right now.