C’mon Inner Peace; Traders Don’t Have All Day


Sculpture on Canyon Road, Santa Fe, NM.

Besides that she looks electrified and mystical in a sort of goddess, yogi, Frankenstein way, I imagine that she gazes up for a sign on the market’s next direction.

Me too.

After all, the conflicting signals on the charts do not really add up. On the one hand, Nasdaq made a new all-time high.

Biotechnology cleared all of December’s price movement. Semiconductors retook a pivotal resistance point.

On the other hand, Retail was cast in a horror film where the skeleton-in-the-closet finally comes out to haunt everyone.

Transportation weakens and the Russell 2000 tests important near-term support for the 8th time since early December.

Yields and the U.S Dollar softened and metals rose.

Short of sitting in a lotus position with arms upstretched waiting for the universe to guide us, what other technical factors could help?

With just a bit more patience, position swing traders will soon have a reliable indicator.

The 6-month calendar range happens twice a year. We are only 5 trading days away from knowing the January 2017 calendar range.

As Geoff wrote a year ago, “January will often trend, and it can reveal new trends.” Therefore, the 6-month Calendar Range should clarify:

  1. Whether Retail, Transportation and Regional Banks are toast. At the very least, we will have a range to trade from.
  1. Whether the metals are due for a repeat of last January when they soared beyond the 6-month range. (Some of our best trades!)
  1. Whether Biotechnology hits a wall or continues to resurrect-so important to gauge speculative interest.
  1. Whether the long bonds hold in the monthly channel and continue to rise in price, hence yields continue to fall.
  1. Whether the list of 2017 long and short Picks will offer the best net gains in the next several months.

With an uncertain year ahead of us, the 6-month calendar range is not a guarantee, but a key time pivot and the potential end of one cycle and the start of the next.

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Disclosure: None. 

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