Cash Is King For Natural Gas

The November natural gas contract whipsawed around quite a bit this week, shooting higher on Monday and setting a new high for the week on Tuesday before re-testing it Wednesday. From there prices attempted to decline Thursday, bouncing into the settle but following through on that downside with a 2% decline Friday to settle up only around half a percent on the week. 

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natural gas commodity weather

Gains were larger further along the strip, with the March natural gas contract actually logging the largest gain (9.8 cents) of the week. 

natural gas commodity weather

We saw bull spreads that were put on last week and Monday quickly unravel through the week, as seen here with the X/F November/March contract spread. 

(Click on image to enlarge)

natural gas commodity weather

Spreads originally narrowed on very strong cash prices early in the week that combined with bullish weather forecasts to blow out the front of the strip. However, through the week we saw cash prices begin to ease as power burns pulled back in the South. 

natural gas commodity weather

Despite quite a bit of intraday volatility, the week actually fit our expectations.

natural gas commodity weather

Those storage concerns references were partially eased by an in-line EIA print Thursday that continued to show a market that was far looser than a few weeks ago. 

natural gas commodity weather

 

(Click on image to enlarge)

natural gas commodity weather

We saw colder afternoon models push prices up into the settle.

natural gas commodity weather

 

Disclaimer: To begin receiving both our technical and fundamental analysis of the natural gas market on a daily basis, and view our various models breaking down weather by natural gas demand ...

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