Can The Transportation Sector Gain Altitude?

​All last week, we watched the Transportation Sector represented by the ETF IYT. It went up and down and all around the monthly channel top and the 6-month calendar range high. It ultimately closed the week at 175.67. Thereby, IYT failed both of those key reference points, yet held the 50 daily moving average at 174.65. The significance of holding the 50-DMA has to do with phase. With IYT in a bullish phase, the failure of the other reference points will become increasingly noteworthy should the phase deteriorate as well. When the market fiesta purposely presents its most spectacular hot-air balloon as its final curtain, so to speak, it better be spectacular. The motorcycle fully inflated, like the transportation sector, must gather fire to take-off. Otherwise, the spectators, with cameras ready, document nothing more than a lot of hot air without enough propulsion.

The Russell 2000 (IWM), ended the week with 2 inside days. That Harami candlestick pattern means a pause in the action as investors try to decide next direction, up or down. Best tell? IYT. Yep, should IYT elevate back above 176 and hold, expect IWM to attempt a move to 150. Above there, new ballgame.

And not one to dismiss readily, Granny Retail (XRT) closed marginally under 40.00. XRT needs to hold on as tightly as our motorcyclist grips those handlebars. Besides, Granny has one major reason to stay alive. Her daughter Semiconductors. I read that Wonder Woman is the highest grossing superhero movie ever.  We tagged SMH as Wonder Woman long before the film came out. Therefore, no surprise the rally in that sector is omnipotent.

With another new all-time high in SMH’s, our Sister’s Golden Belt is truly the symbol of the Amazon supremacy. (pun intended). Meanwhile, Biotechnology (IBB), already in a warning phase, made a relatively strong comeback from the 310-support level I wrote about. IBB merely needs to hang tough now that many speculative longs are gone. If so, we can expect to see renewed interest. Especially, if the other members of our Modern Family do the right thing.

Finally, Nasdaq made new all-time highs reversing the blow-off-rally-already-happened thoughts from my brain. Henceforth, should Transportation cooperate this week, those spirits the market allowed to pass last week, will look as intimidating as Casper, The Friendly Ghost.

S&P 500 (SPY) Eked out a new all-time high

Russell 2000 (IWM) 2 inside days so follow the range break up or down

Dow (DIA) New all-time highs

Nasdaq (QQQNew all-time highs

KRE (Regional Banks) Inside day. 57.00 pivotal

SMH (SemiconductorsWW and new all-time highs

IYT (Transportation) Back below the monthly channel on the new month-still best place to watch

IBB (Biotechnology310 support held-now looking at 317, then 322.

XRT (Retail) Closed shy of 40.00. Not so good. Needs to hold 39.25.Over 40.50 is a decent long

GLD (Gold Trust) 119.75 support. No way I will bearish but not time to get anything more than neutral right now

SLV (Silver) 16.25 next point to clear

USO (US Oil Fund) Great close to the week-one reason not too get too negative on gold

XLE (Sel Energy Spdr Fd) Trying to hold above the 200-DMA

OIH (Oil Service Holders) Trying to hold above the 50-DMA

XOP (Oil & Gas Exploration) 35.52 the 50-week MA.

TAN (Solar Energy) New 2017 high close

TLT (iShares 20+ Year Treasuries) 125.70 Friday high and should be resistance

UUP (Dollar Bull) 24.37 the 200-week MA and 24.80 resistance

Disclosure: None.

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