USDJPY

30 min

4 Hours

Daily

My Bias: LONG
Wave Structure: rally in wave [C]
Long term wave count: wave [C] is underway, upside to above 136.00
Important risk events: JPY: N/A. USD: CB Consumer Confidence, Fed Chair Yellen Speaks.

USDJPY rose today and broke Fridays high at 111.44 which has again shifted the focus higher in a possible wave 'iii' brown.

I have shown an idealised wave '1' pink which should break the upper trend line of that rising trend channel.
Another small corrective decline off wave '1' pink would be another elliott wave bullish signal.

The price could be rising in wave 'iii' brown now,
So the possibility for a an acceleration higher is quite high.

The only other interpretation for todays rise is that wave 'b' pink is extending in a three wave form.
So the action near that upper trend line is critical.
A clean break higher above that trend line is needed from here.

For tomorrow watch for the resistance at 111.78 to become support in wave '2' pink.

GOLD

30 min

4 Hours

Daily

My Bias: Long towards 1550
Wave Structure: ZigZag correction to the upside.
Long term wave count: Topping in wave (B) at 1550
Important risk events: USD: CB Consumer Confidence, Fed Chair Yellen Speaks.

As feared,
last weeks encouraging rally ended in a three wave form, shown in a trend channel on the short term chart.

At 9.00 am on the DOT!
A large sell order was placed and the price dumped by $18 dollars immediately.
The price has been in recovery mode all day.
Interestingly the price hit the lower trendline and bounced from there.
This still points to a correction in wave 'ii' brown.

I have shown an alternate wave count on the 4hr chart.
This involves a flat correction in wave [ii] green.
We will know soon enough if this is the correct count with a break of the lower invalidation line at 1214.

For tomorrow I am still on the look out for a new Elliott wave signal off the low.
This will be in the form of wave 1,2 pink to the upside.