Yesterday’s signals were not triggered as there was insufficiently bullish price action when $4,137 was reached although it did act as the key support level of the day.

Today’s BTC/USD Signals

Risk 0.75% per trade.

Trades must be entered before 5pm Tokyo time today.

Long Trade

• Long entry after a bullish price action reversal on the H1 time frame following the next touch of $4,137.
• Put the stop loss 1 pip below the local swing low.
• Move the stop loss to break even once the trade is $200 in profit by price.
• Remove 50% of the position as profit when the trade is $200 in profit by price and leave the remainder of the position to run.

Short Trades

• Short entry after a bearish price action reversal on the H1 time frame following the next touch of $4,982 or $5,187.
• Put the stop loss 1 pip above the local swing high.
• Move the stop loss to break even once the trade is $200 in profit by price.
• Remove 50% of the position as profit when the trade is $200 in profit by price and leave the remainder of the position to run.

The best method to identify a classic “price action reversal” is for an hourly candle to close, such as a pin bar, a doji, an outside or even just an engulfing candle with a higher close. You can exploit these levels or zones by watching the price action that occurs at the given levels.

BTC/USD Analysis

I wrote yesterday that there was no reason not to be bearish but watch out for the support at $4,137. This was a very good call as the price continued to fall until it touched that level, when it bounced bullishly and then began to move up. It will probably be difficult for the price to move much higher than this over the short-term, so when the price action turns more bearish, we are likely to get another push down towards $4,137. I would be very bearish if the price can trade below $4,000 for a couple of hours.

(Click on image to enlarge)

There is nothing important due today regarding the USD.