Last Thursday’s signals were not triggered, as there was no bullish price action at $3,593.

Today’s BTC/USD Signals

Risk 0.75% per trade.

Trades may only be taken until 5pm Tokyo time today.

Long Trades

• Long entry after a bullish price action reversal on the H1 time frame following the next touch of $3,570 or $3,450.
• Place the stop loss 1 pip below the local swing low.
• Adjust the stop loss to break even once the trade is $200 in profit by price.
• Take off 50% of the position as profit when the trade is $200 in profit by price and leave the remainder of the position to run.

Short Trades

• Short entry after a bearish price action reversal on the H1 time frame following the next touch of $3,847, $3,914 or $4,100.
• Place the stop loss 1 pip above the local swing high.
• Adjust the stop loss to break even once the trade is $200 in profit by price.
• Take off 50% of the position as profit when the trade is $200 in profit by price and leave the remainder of the position to run.

The best method to identify a classic “price action reversal” is for an hourly candle to close, such as a pin bar, a doji, an outside or even just an engulfing candle with a higher close. You can exploit these levels or zones by watching the price action that occurs at the given levels.

BTC/USD Analysis

I wrote last Thursday that I would like to take a bearish bias below the lows, but it looked like there was too much potential support there as $3,593 is approached. I thought the most likely outcome would be for the price to remain between $3,847 and $3,650 or so, seeing another bearish rejection of $3,847 as the best potential opportunity. This was not a bad call, as although the price did fall lower than $3,650 it was not exceeded by much before the rice began to rise again.

The technical picture shown in the price chart below is quite bearish despite the price’s reluctance over recent days to fall lower, with a symmetrical bearish channel and its upper trend line confluent with two horizontal resistance levels. This suggests that a bearish rejection of $3,847 would be the best potential set-up. If the price could alternatively get established above $3,914 that would be a bullish sign. I would take a bearish bias if there is a failure to rise above $3,847 today.

(Click on image to enlarge)

There is nothing of high importance due today concerning the USD.