Below looks at Government Bond ETF TLT over the past 10-years. 

(Click on image to enlarge)

For the first seven months of this year, TLT rallied strongly. This rally took it to the top of its 10-year rising channel at (1), where it tested triple resistance, as momentum was reaching levels not seen many times over the past decade.

The week after hitting this resistance zone at (1), it fell hard, creating an engulfing weekly pattern.

Last week could be important for TLT, as it had rallied for two weeks and when it hit new falling resistance at (2), it created a large reversal pattern (bearish wick) last week.

While many continue to debate if the Fed will raise rates, we humbly feel what TLT does at (2), is extremely important, due to the large bearish wick last week at (2).