Forex Seasonality For February

The AUDUSD has risen in 14 of the last 20 years (70%), moving up by an average of 0.5% in February.

The Australian Dollar ETF (FXA) has rallied in 11 of the last 12 years (92%), gaining 1.3% on average during February.

The USDCAD has fallen in 13 of the last 20 years (65%), dropping an average of 0.3% in February.

The CurrencyShares Canadian Dollar Trust (FXC) has rallied in February in 8 of the last 11 years, with an average gain of 0.5%.

Commodity Seasonality For February

February is the best month of the year for Corn (ZC) futures. They have rallied in 14 of the last 20 years (70%), moving up an average of 4% in February.

Teucrium Corn Fund (CORN) has moved up 5 of the last 7 years (71%), averaging 0.8%.

February is the best month of the year for Oil (CL) futures. They have rallied in 15 of the last 20 years (75%), moving up an average of 3.7% in February.

The United States Oil Fund (USO) has moved up 8 of the last 11 years, averaging 2.2%.

Gold (GC) futures have rallied in 12 of the last 20 years (60%), moving up 1.3% in February on average. Looking at any term shorter than 20 years, and gold has performed stronger. For example, over the last 10 years it moved up 70% of the time.

The SPDR Gold Shares (GLD) has moved up 9 out of the last 13 years, averaging 2.1% in February.
 

February is the best month of the year for Silver (SI) futures. They have rallied in 14 of the last 20 years (70%), moving up 4.1% in February on average.

The iShares Silver Trust (SLV) has moved up 9 out of the last 11 years, averaging 5.1% in February.

 

Sugar (SB) futures have fallen 14 of the last 20 years (70%). The average decline is -2.3%.

The Bloomberg Sugar SubIndex Total Return ETN (SGG) has dropped in 5 of the last 9 years, with an average decline of -0.3%.

 

Wheat (ZW) futures have risen 13 of the last 20 years (65%). The average gain is 2.1%, making it one of the best performing months of the year.

Teucrium Wheat Fund (WEAT) hasn’t performed as well in the short-term, dropping in 3 of the last 6 years (60%), with an average decline of -1.6%%.

Final Word on Forex and Commodity Seasonality

This is the raw data. What you do with it is up to you. All traders are encouraged to do their own research and apply their own strategies if utilizing these 

statistics.

Apply other technical and fundamental metrics to help zero-in on exact entry and exit points. Seasonality is not covered in my stock or forex trading course because it is a not a requirement for successful trading. That said, it is an additional tool you may use.

Losing trades WILL happen. Don’t risk more than 1% (or 2%) of your trading account on a trade (risk = difference between entry price and stop loss price, multiplied by the number of shares). There is always a risk in trading, and you can lose much more than you expect (even when you think you are only risking 1%).