Anticipating The Employment Report For August: ADP Number 11K Below Forecast

The economic mover and shaker this week is Friday's employment report from the Bureau of Labor Statistics. This monthly report contains a wealth of data for economists, the most publicized being the month-over-month change in Total Nonfarm Employment (the PAYEMS series in the FRED repository).

Today we have the August estimate of 190K new nonfarm private employment jobs from ADP, an increase over July's 177K, which is a downward revision from 185K. Also, the June number was revised upward by 2K.

The 190K estimate came in below the Investing.com forecast of 201K for the ADP number.

The Investing.com forecast for the forthcoming BLS report is for 220K nonfarm new jobs (the actual PAYEMS number).

Here is an excerpt from today's ADP report:

"The job growth numbers for August improved slightly from July," said Carlos Rodriguez, president and chief executive officer of ADP. "The employment gains for the month are in line with the year to date average." Mark Zandi, chief economist of Moody’s Analytics, said, "Recent global financial market turmoil has not slowed the U.S. job market, at least not yet. Job growth remains strong and broad-based, except in the energy industry, which continues to shed jobs. Large companies also remain more cautious in their hiring than smaller ones."

Here is a visualization of the two series over the previous twelve months.

The key difference between the two series is that the BLS series is for Nonfarm Payrolls while ADP tracks private employment.

Disclosure: None.

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