An Arrow To The Sky Can Ricochet To The Ground

How do you transport a thousand-pound bronze sculpture of a Native American aiming to shoot an arrow into the sky? Carefully.

How do you trade a thousand-pound stock market that aims to shoot an arrow into the sky? Carefully.

Uncertainty surrounds the market: 

The terror attack, the American Health Care Act, Immigration policies, unsubstantiated wire-tapping claims, Russian interference, no new tax or budget policies and so on.

These uncertainties anchored a market that up until last week, looked ready to shoot its own arrow into the sky.

Can a thousand-pound stock market anchored in place, still tumble in transport?

Perhaps not if its anchored with technology and computer chips rather than bungee cords.

On Friday, Semiconductors made a new all-time high by one cent. Although SMH closed green, the possibility of a topping reversal pattern looms.

A move over Friday’s high will restore Sister Semiconductors status to Wonder Woman. A plunge under 77.80, not so much.

Biotechnology has support at the 50 daily moving average and the January 6-month calendar range high.

Nevertheless, should IBB topple over, one wonders how much cushion there is underneath to break its fall.

Retail XRT has a tighter range to watch. A price between 40.50-41.00 keeps it on the truck. Under 40.40, the next real test of support is around 37.90.

The Russell 2000 (IWM) has been tethered to the 100-daily moving average. That means that if IWM cannot sustain 134 this week, the arrow to the sky will ricochet to the ground.

Should IWM move under last week’s low, 132.78, the thousand-pound market will weigh more like a ton.

Transportation (IYT) broadcasted warnings all last week about the risk of buying and transporting new stock acquisitions.

As a lead indicator of not only the U.S. economic outlook but also the confidence in the Trump administration, Trans is saying no bronze.

Hence, very large sculptures require a fork-lift or crane for moving and positioning. So might the very large and heavy market.

S&P 500 (SPY) 232.90 the 50 DMA. 235.50 area resistance

Russell 2000 (IWM) Inside day right on the pivotal 100 DMA. That means the break of Friday’s range either way important.

Dow (DIA) 204.30 the 50 DMA. Back thru 208 nothing short of a miracle

Nasdaq (QQQ) See 131.25 area as key to clear. Under Friday low trouble

KRE (Regional Banks) Inside day but also looks like a bear flag forming

SMH (Semiconductors). 77.80 support and 80 resistance

IYT (Transportation) Support around 159.25 to 160.00

IBB (Biotechnology) Clutch hold at 287.50 that must continue to hold. Over 290 better

XRT (Retail) 40.50 must hold area.

IYR (Real Estate) Back under the 50 DMA

GLD (Gold Trust) 120.27 the 200 DMA with 118 pivotal

SLV (Silver) Looks good if holds 16.60

USO (US Oil Fund) Over 10.20 again better

TAN (Solar Energy) Needs to clear back over 17.50

TLT (iShares 20+ Year Treasuries) 118 support and 121 resistance

UUP (Dollar Bull25.65 recent swing low support

 

Disclosure: None.

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