TNX – the yield on the 10yr US Treasury note -  gained 0.22% last week closing at 22.37 but 14-day RSI remains below its own 20-dma; bearish. The break of support at 23.35 (now resistance) has opened a door for a return to 20.00.

The monthly chart below shows how the long-term trend line has turned back the rally in TNX on numerous occasions. However, as the monthly Coppock Curve failed to confirm the 2012 low during the 2016 test of that low we’ve probably seen the low of the +30yr decline in interest rates.

Cycles: a convergence of cycle lows is due in late April/ early May. Short-term cycles point to 4/25/17.