Thursday, December 14, 2017 2:02 PM EDT
The last quarter of 2017 revealed continued bullish momentum in the US stock market and ongoing increases in earnings of US public companies. Through the middle of December, the market made progressive new index highs. Rotation among sectors finally took some steam from the “FAANMG” stocks.
Notwithstanding the high price levels, we expect stocks to rise into next year. Earnings momentum is a powerful force. Tax policy changes portend well for US companies.
We end the year with an overweight of smaller-cap stocks. Note that in the first eleven months of 2017, the Russell 2000 Index achieved about half the return of the Nasdaq 100 (about 14% versus about 30%). We think that relative performance will reverse into year end and early next year.
We have rotated down in our overweight of tech stocks. We have Energy positions focused on US domestic oil and gas. We like the Health sector. Our US ETF accounts are fully invested.
Over time various broad market measures tend to converge. This year’s divergence has been huge; we expect a reversal. That anticipated convergence supports our small-cap overweight theme. For the last 10 years, the annualized results range from Russell 3000 (lowest, at 8.5%) to Nasdaq 100 (highest, at 13%). Note that the FAANMG stocks’ recent extraordinary outperformance is responsible for this gap. Without FAANMG, the market averaged about 9% annualized for the decade. Remember that the decade includes the 2008–09 bear market period.
We do not think the bull market is over. In 2018, we expect more volatility within an upward trend.
Disclaimer: The preceding was provided by Cumberland Advisors, Home Office: One Sarasota Tower, 2 N. Tamiami Trail, Suite 303, Sarasota, FL 34236; New Jersey Office: 614 Landis Ave, Vineland, NJ ...
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Disclaimer: The preceding was provided by Cumberland Advisors, Home Office: One Sarasota Tower, 2 N. Tamiami Trail, Suite 303, Sarasota, FL 34236; New Jersey Office: 614 Landis Ave, Vineland, NJ 08360. 1-800-257-7013. This report has been derived from information considered reliable, but it cannot be guaranteed as to accuracy or completeness. For a list of all equity sales/purchases for the past year, please contact Therese Pantalione at 1-800-257-7013, ext. 315. This report is currently about 1700 pages in length. It is not our intention to state or imply in any manner that past results and profitability are an indication of future performance. This does not constitute an offer to sell or the solicitation or recommendation of an offer to buy or sell any securities directly or indirectly herein. Cumberland Advisors supervises over $2.4 billion in separate account assets for individuals, institutions, retirement plans, government entities, and cash-management portfolios. Cumberland manages portfolios for clients in 48 states, the District of Columbia and in countries outside the U.S. Cumberland Advisors is an SEC registered investment adviser. For further information about Cumberland Advisors, please visit our website at www.cumber.com. Please feel free to forward this Commentary (with proper attribution) to others who may be interested. CONFIDENTIAL: This e-mail, including its contents and attachments, if any, are confidential. If you are not the named recipient please notify the sender and immediately delete it. Copyright and any other intellectual property rights in its contents are the sole property of Cumberland Advisors. E-mail transmission cannot be guaranteed to be secure or error-free. The sender therefore does not accept liability for any errors or omissions in the contents of this message which arise as a result of e-mail transmission. If verification is required please request a hard-copy version. It is important that you do not forward full account numbers, tax identification numbers or confidential personal information via email unless it is password protected Although we routinely screen for viruses, addressees should check this e-mail and any attachments for viruses. We make no representation or warranty as to the absence of viruses in this e-mail or any attachments. Please note that to ensure regulatory compliance and for the protection of our customers and business, your e-mail message is not private in that it is subject to review by the firm, its officers, agents, employees, and by federal or state regulatory authorities including but not limited to the Securities and Exchange Commission.
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