10 Most Undervalued Companies For The Defensive Investor – August 2015

There are a number of great companies in the market today. By using the ModernGraham Valuation Model, I’ve selected the ten most undervalued companies reviewed by ModernGraham. Each company has been determined to be suitable for Defensive Investor according to the ModernGraham approach.

Defensive Investors are defined as investors who are not able or willing to do substantial research into individual investments, and therefore need to select only the companies that present the least amount of risk. Enterprising Investors, on the other hand, are able to do substantial research and can select companies that present a moderate (though still low) amount of risk. Each company suitable for the Defensive Investor is also suitable for Enterprising Investors.

Fossil Group Inc. (FOSL)

Fossil Group performs well in the ModernGraham model and is suitable for both Defensive and Enterprising Investors. Both investor types are only initially concerned by the lack of dividend payments. As a result, all value investors should feel very comfortable proceeding to the next part of the analysis, which is a determination of the company’s intrinsic value.

When it comes to valuation, it is critical to consider the company’s earnings history. In this case, the company has grown its EPSmg (normalized earnings) from $1.68 in 2011 to an estimated $6.01 for 2015. This is a strong level of growth and is well above the market’s implied estimate of only 1.68% annual earnings growth over the next 7-10 years.

Here, actual growth in EPSmg over the last several years has averaged nearly 16% annually, so the market is expecting a very significant drop in earnings growth. The ModernGraham valuation model reduces the historical growth to a more conservative figure, assuming that some slowdown will occur, but still estimates a growth figure much higher than the market’s implied rate. Therefore, the model returns an estimate of intrinsic value well above the current price, indicating the company is significantly undervalued at the present time.  (See the full valuation)

Yahoo! Inc. (YHOO)

Yahoo! passes the initial requirements of the Enterprising Investor, but not the more conservative Defensive Investor. The Defensive Investor is concerned by the company’s lack of dividend payments, a concern shared by the Enterprising Investor. As a result, all value investors should feel very comfortable proceeding to the next part of the analysis, which is a determination of the company’s intrinsic value.

When it comes to that valuation, it is critical to consider the company’s earnings history. In this case, it has grown its EPSmg (normalized earnings) from $0.67 in 2011 to an estimated $2.90 for 2015. This is a very strong level of demonstrated growth, which is well above the market’s implied estimate for annual earnings growth of 3.47% over the next 7-10 years.

In recent years, the company’s actual growth in EPSmg has been astronomical, averaging nearly 67% annually, and while the ModernGraham valuation model reduces the actual growth to a more conservative figure when making an estimate, the model still returns an estimate of intrinsic value well above the current price, indicating that the company is undervalued at the present time. (See the full valuation)

Eastman Chemical Company (EMN)

Eastman Chemical performs well in the ModernGraham model and is suitable for both Defensive Investors and Enterprising Investors. The Defensive Investor is concerned with the low current ratio, while the Enterprising Investor is similarly concerned with the level of debt relative to the net current assets. As a result, all value investors should feel very comfortable proceeding to the next part of the analysis, which is a determination of the company’s intrinsic value.

When it comes to valuation, it is critical to consider the company’s earnings history. In this case, the company has grown its EPSmg (normalized earnings) from $2.88 in 2011 to an estimated $5.86 for 2015. This is a strong level of growth and is well above the market’s implied estimate of only 2.39% annual earnings growth over the next 7-10 years.

Here, actual growth in EPSmg over the last several years has averaged nearly 21% annually, so the market is expecting a very significant drop in earnings growth. The ModernGraham valuation model reduces the historical growth to a more conservative figure, assuming that some slowdown will occur, but still estimates a growth figure much higher than the market’s implied rate. Therefore, the model returns an estimate of intrinsic value well above the current price, indicating the company is significantly undervalued at the present time. (See the full valuation)

CF Industries Holdings (CF)

CF Industries passes the initial requirements of both the Defensive Investor and the Enterprising Investor. The Defensive Investor is only concerned by the low current ratio, while the Enterprising Investor’s only concern is the level of debt relative to the net current assets. As a result, all value investors should feel very comfortable proceeding to the next part of the analysis, which is a determination of the company’s intrinsic value.

When it comes to that valuation, it is critical to consider the company’s earnings history. In this case, it has grown its EPSmg (normalized earnings) from $2.46 in 2011 to an estimated $4.82 for 2015. This is a fairly strong level of demonstrated growth, and outpaces the market’s implied estimate for annual earnings growth of only 2.33% over the next 7-10 years.

In recent years, the company’s actual growth in EPSmg has averaged around 19.25% annually, and while the ModernGraham valuation model reduces the actual growth to a more conservative figure when making an estimate, the model still returns an estimate of intrinsic value well above the current price, indicating that CF Industries is significantly undervalued at the present time. (See the full valuation)

Quanta Services Inc. (PWR)

Quanta Services passes the initial requirements of both the Defensive Investor and the Enterprising Investor. Both investor types are only initially concerned by the lack of dividends. As a result, all value investors should feel very comfortable proceeding to the next part of the analysis, which is a determination of the company’s intrinsic value.

When it comes to that valuation, it is critical to consider the company’s earnings history. In this case, it has grown its EPSmg (normalized earnings) from $0.74 in 2011 to an estimated $1.57 for 2015. This is a fairly strong level of demonstrated growth and outpaces the market’s implied estimate for annual earnings growth of only 4.64% over the next 7-10 years.

In recent years, the company’s actual growth in EPSmg has averaged around 22.7% annually, and while the ModernGraham valuation model reduces the actual growth to a more conservative figure when making an estimate, the model still returns an estimate of intrinsic value well above the current price, indicating that Quanta Services is significantly undervalued at the present time. (See the full valuation)

Aflac Inc. (AFL)

Aflac passes the initial requirements of both the Defensive Investor and the Enterprising Investor. In fact, the company passes every requirement of both investor types, which is a rare accomplishment indicative of the company’s strong financial position. As a result, all value investors should feel very comfortable proceeding to the next part of the analysis, which is a determination of the company’s intrinsic value.

When it comes to that valuation, it is critical to consider the company’s earnings history. In this case, it has grown its EPSmg (normalized earnings) from $3.89 in 2011 to an estimated $6.13 for 2015. This is a fairly strong level of demonstrated growth, and outpaces the market’s implied estimate for annual earnings growth of only 0.87% over the next 7-10 years.

In recent years, the company’s actual growth in EPSmg has averaged around 11.5% annually, and while the ModernGraham valuation model reduces the actual growth to a more conservative figure when making an estimate, the model still returns an estimate of intrinsic value well above the current price, indicating that Aflac is significantly undervalued at the present time. (See the full valuation)

Macerich Company (MAC)

As this Macerich stock analysis shows, Macerich Company is suitable for both the Defensive Investor and the Enterprising Investor.  The Defensive Investor is only concerned by the low current ratio, and the Enterprising Investor is willing to overlook concerns regarding the level of debt relative to the current assets because the company satisfies the more conservative Defensive Investor.  As a result, all value investors following the ModernGraham approach based on Benjamin Graham’s methods should feel very comfortable proceeding with further research and comparing the company to other opportunities.  From a valuation side of things, the company appears to be undervalued after growing its EPSmg (normalized earnings) from $1.09 in 2011 to an estimated $5.06 for 2015.  This level of demonstrated growth outpaces the market’s implied estimate of 3.98% annual earnings growth over the next 7-10 years and leads the ModernGraham valuation model, based on Benjamin Graham’s formula, to return an estimate of intrinsic value well above the price. (See the full valuation)

Qualcomm Inc. (QCOM)

Qualcomm Inc. passes the initial requirements of both the Defensive Investor and the Enterprising Investor. In fact, neither investor type has any initial concerns, which is indicative of the company’s strong financial position. As a result, all value investors should feel very comfortable proceeding to the next part of the analysis, which is a determination of the company’s intrinsic value.

When it comes to that valuation, it is critical to consider the company’s earnings history. In this case, it has grown its EPSmg (normalized earnings) from $1.94 in 2011 to an estimated $3.87 for 2015. This level of demonstrated growth outpaces the market’s implied estimate for annual earnings growth of 3.69% over the next 7-10 years.

In recent years, the company’s actual growth in EPSmg has averaged around 20% annually. The ModernGraham valuation model reduces the actual growth to a more conservative figure when making an estimate, but still returns an estimate of intrinsic value well above the current price, indicating that Qualcomm Inc. is undervalued at the present time.(See the full valuation on GuruFocus)

Travelers Companies (TRV)

Travelers Companies qualifies for both the Defensive Investor and the Enterprising Investor.  The company passes all of the requirements of both investor types, a rare accomplishment.  As a result, all value investors following the ModernGraham approach based on Benjamin Graham’s methods should feel comfortable proceeding with further research into the company and comparing it to other opportunities.  As for a valuation, the company appears undervalued after growing its EPSmg (normalized earnings) from $5.25 in 2011 to an estimated $8.80 for 2015.  This level of demonstrated growth outpaces the market’s implied estimate of 1.61% earnings growth and leads the ModernGraham valuation model, which is based on Benjamin Graham’s formula, to return an estimate of intrinsic value above the market price. (See the full valuation)

Helmerich & Payne Inc. (HP)

Helmerich & Payne Inc. is suitable for both the Defensive Investor and the Enterprising Investor.  The company passes all of the requirements of each investor type, which is a rare accomplishment indicative of the company’s strong financial position.  As a result, value investors following the ModernGraham approach based on Benjamin Graham’s methods should feel very comfortable proceeding with further research and comparing the company to other opportunities.  From a valuation side of things, the company appears to be undervalued after growing its EPSmg (normalized earnings) from $3.24 in 2011 to an estimated $5.11 for 2015.  This level of demonstrated growth outpaces the market’s implied estimate of 2.97% annual earnings growth over the next 7-10 years and leads the ModernGraham valuation model, based on Benjamin Graham’s formula, to return an estimate of intrinsic value well above the price. (See the full valuation)

 

Disclaimer:  The author held a long position in DIS and HD but did not hold a ...

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