10 Companies Benjamin Graham Would Invest In Today – September 2015

Out of the multitude of companies, which ones would legendary value investor Benjamin Graham buy today?  I’ve compiled ten great companies that fit the ModernGraham criteria, based on Benjamin Graham’s methods. The companies in this list pass the rigorous requirements of either the Defensive Investor or the Enterprising Investor and are undervalued by the market.

Here are the ten companies Benjamin Graham would invest in today:

Aflac Inc. (AFL)

Aflac passes the initial requirements of both the Defensive Investor and the Enterprising Investor. In fact, the company passes every requirement of both investor types, which is a rare accomplishment indicative of the company’s strong financial position. As a result, all value investors should feel very comfortable proceeding to the next part of the analysis, which is a determination of the company’s intrinsic value.

When it comes to that valuation, it is critical to consider the company’s earnings history. In this case, it has grown its EPSmg (normalized earnings) from $3.89 in 2011 to an estimated $6.13 for 2015. This is a fairly strong level of demonstrated growth, and outpaces the market’s implied estimate for annual earnings growth of only 0.87% over the next 7-10 years.

In recent years, the company’s actual growth in EPSmg has averaged around 11.5% annually, and while the ModernGraham valuation model reduces the actual growth to a more conservative figure when making an estimate, the model still returns an estimate of intrinsic value well above the current price, indicating that Aflac is significantly undervalued at the present time. (See the full valuation)

CF Industries Holdings (CF)

CF Industries passes the initial requirements of both the Defensive Investor and the Enterprising Investor. The Defensive Investor is only concerned by the low current ratio, while the Enterprising Investor’s only concern is the level of debt relative to the net current assets. As a result, all value investors should feel very comfortable proceeding to the next part of the analysis, which is a determination of the company’s intrinsic value.

When it comes to that valuation, it is critical to consider the company’s earnings history. In this case, it has grown its EPSmg (normalized earnings) from $2.46 in 2011 to an estimated $4.82 for 2015. This is a fairly strong level of demonstrated growth, and outpaces the market’s implied estimate for annual earnings growth of only 2.33% over the next 7-10 years.

In recent years, the company’s actual growth in EPSmg has averaged around 19.25% annually, and while the ModernGraham valuation model reduces the actual growth to a more conservative figure when making an estimate, the model still returns an estimate of intrinsic value well above the current price, indicating that CF Industries is significantly undervalued at the present time. (See the full valuation)

Discover Financial Services (DFS)

Discover Financial Services qualifies for the Enterprising Investor but not the Defensive Investor.  The Defensive Investor is concerned by the short dividend history, while the company passes all of the Enterprising Investor’s requirements.  As a result, Enterprising Investors following the ModernGraham approach based on Benjamin Graham’s methods should feel comfortable proceeding with further research into the company and comparing it to other opportunities.

As for a valuation, the company appears undervalued after growing its EPSmg (normalized earnings) from $2.49 in 2011 to an estimated $4.87 for 2015.  This level of demonstrated growth is greater than the market’s implied estimate of 1.25% earnings growth and leads the ModernGraham valuation model, which is based on Benjamin Graham’s formula, to return an estimate of intrinsic value above the market price. (See the full valuation)

Eastman Chemical Co. (EMN)

Eastman Chemical Company qualifies for either the Defensive Investor or the Enterprising Investor.  The Defensive Investor is only initially concerned with the low current ratio, while the Enterprising Investor is only concerned with the level of debt relative to the net current assets.  As a result, all value investors following the ModernGraham approach based on Benjamin Graham’s methods should feel comfortable proceeding with the next stage of the analysis.

As for a valuation, the company appears to be undervalued after growing its EPSmg (normalized earnings) from $2.88 in 2011 to an estimated $5.62 for 2015.  This level of demonstrated earnings growth outpaces the market’s implied estimate of 2% annual earnings growth over the next 7-10 years.  As a result, the ModernGraham valuation model, based on Benjamin Graham’s formula, returns an estimate of intrinsic value well above the price. (See the full valuation)

KKR & Co. (KKR)

KKR & Co. LP qualifies for the Enterprising Investor but not the Defensive Investor.  The Defensive Investor is concerned by the short history as a publicly traded company, while the company passes all of the Enterprising Investor’s requirements.  As a result, Enterprising Investors following the ModernGraham approach based on Benjamin Graham’s methods should feel comfortable proceeding with further research into the company and comparing it to other opportunities.

As for a valuation, the company appears undervalued after growing its EPSmg (normalized earnings) from $0.44 in 2011 to an estimated $1.83 for 2015.  This level of demonstrated growth is greater than the market’s implied estimate of 2.32% earnings growth and leads the ModernGraham valuation model, which is based on Benjamin Graham’s formula, to return an estimate of intrinsic value above the market price. (See the full valuation)

LyondellBasell Industries (LYB)

LyondellBasell Industries qualifies for the Enterprising Investor but not the more conservative Defensive Investor.  The Defensive Investor is concerned with the short history post bankruptcy, and the high PB ratio.  The Enterprising Investor is only initially concerned with the level of debt relative to the net current assets.  As a result, all Enterprising Investors following the ModernGraham approach based on Benjamin Graham’s methods should feel comfortable proceeding with further research into the company.

As for a valuation, the company appears to be undervalued after growing its EPSmg (normalized earnings) post bankruptcy to an estimated $7.50 for 2015.  This level of demonstrated earnings growth outpaces the market’s implied estimate of 1.28% annual earnings growth over the next 7-10 years.  As a result, the ModernGraham valuation model, based on Benjamin Graham’s formula, returns an estimate of intrinsic value above the price. (See the full valuation)

PulteGroup Inc. (PHM)

PulteGroup is not suitable for Defensive Investors but it does pass the initial requirements of the Enterprising Investor. The Defensive Investor is concerned with the insufficient earnings growth or stability over the last ten years, and the unstable dividend history, while the Enterprising Investor’s only concern is the lack of earnings stability over the last five years. As a result, all Enterprising Investors should feel very comfortable proceeding to the next part of the analysis, which is a determination of the company’s intrinsic value.

When it comes to that valuation, it is critical to consider the company’s earnings history. In this case, it has grown its EPSmg (normalized earnings) from a loss of $3.12 in 2011 to an estimated gain of $2.11 for 2015. This is a fairly strong level of demonstrated growth, and outpaces the market’s implied estimate for annual earnings growth of only 0.61% over the next 7-10 years.

In recent years, the company’s actual growth in EPSmg has averaged considerably more than the market’s estimate annually, and while the ModernGraham valuation model reduces the actual growth to a more conservative figure when making an estimate, the model still returns an estimate of intrinsic value well above the current price, indicating that PulteGroup is significantly undervalued at the present time.  (See the full valuation)

Valero Energy Corporation (VLO)

Valero Energy Corporation qualifies for the Enterprising Investor but not the more conservative Defensive Investor.  The Defensive Investor is concerned with the low current ratio, and the insufficient earnings growth or stability over the last ten years.  The Enterprising Investor has no initial concerns.  As a result, all Enterprising Investors following the ModernGraham approach based on Benjamin Graham’s methods should feel comfortable proceeding with the evaluation.

As for a valuation, the company appears to be undervalued after growing its EPSmg (normalized earnings) from $0.95 in 2011 to an estimated $5.66 for 2015.  This level of demonstrated earnings growth outpaces the market’s implied estimate of 1.58% annual earnings growth over the next 7-10 years.  As a result, the ModernGraham valuation model, based on Benjamin Graham’s formula, returns an estimate of intrinsic value above the price.  (See the full valuation)

Western Refining Inc. (WNR)

Western Refining Inc. qualifies for the Enterprising Investor but not the more conservative Defensive Investor.  The Defensive Investor is concerned with the insufficient earnings stability over the last ten years as well as the inconsistent dividend record over that period.  The Enterprising Investor is only initially concerned with the level of debt relative to the net current assets.  As a result, all Enterprising Investors following the ModernGraham approach based on Benjamin Graham’s methods should feel comfortable proceeding with the evaluation.

As for a valuation, the company appears to be undervalued after growing its EPSmg (normalized earnings) from a loss of $0.13 in 2011 to a gain of $3.97 for 2015.  This level of demonstrated earnings growth surpasses the market’s implied estimate of 1.35% annual earnings growth over the next 7-10 years.  As a result, the ModernGraham valuation model, based on Benjamin Graham’s formula, returns an estimate of intrinsic value above the price.  (See the full valuation)

Weyerhaeuser Company (WY)

Weyerhaeuser Company qualifies for the Enterprising Investor but is not suitable for the more conservative Defensive Investor.  The Defensive Investor is concerned with the insufficient earnings growth or stability over the last ten years, and the high PEmg and PB ratios.  The Enterprising Investor is only initially concerned by the level of debt relative to the net current assets.  As a result, all Enterprising Investors following the ModernGraham approach based on Benjamin Graham’s methods should feel comfortable proceeding with further research into the company.

As for a valuation, the company appears to be undervalued after growing its EPSmg (normalized earnings) from $0.89 in 2011 to an estimated $1.49 for 2015.  This level of demonstrated earnings growth outpaces the market’s implied estimate of 6.24% annual earnings growth over the next 7-10 years.  As a result, the ModernGraham valuation model, based on Benjamin Graham’s formula, returns an estimate of intrinsic value above the price.  (See the full valuation)

 

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