All I have energy for today is to post one of my favorite charts, and to make just a few comments.

The NASDAQ is hitting new highs. Technology stocks are looking very strong, and they are helping to pull the market higher.

New 52-week lows have pulled way back, and new 52-week highs are starting to increase. This is typical of the market when it is ready to start to run higher after a pullback.

Based on the chart below, market breadth is confirming by hitting new highs, and the S&P-1500 chart pattern is looking constructive.

Now we watch to see if market participation broadens out beyond Technology. My guess is that we get a nice rally, but participation won't be enough.

It seems too soon for the broad market to run up to significant new highs, and negative headlines will continue to cause market volatility. The market needs time to consolidate last year's huge gains. I expect the broad market to struggle near new highs, and then move sideways until the mid-term elections in November.

My accounts are about 70% stocks which seems like a lot. I will probably sit tight for a few weeks, and then start to look for opportunities to take partial profits and reduce the percentage of stock holdings.

I am not sure what percentage of stocks to hold, but I am thinking that there will be some scary, negative headlines this year which may provide some nice buying opportunities. This means that I will need cash in order to take advantage of the dips.

 

Outlook Summary:

Higher rates are now a headwind for US stocks. The recent tax cut, the 300 billion spending increase, and the already out-of-control federal deficit are a set up for a very dangerous spike in interest rates.

Something else to consider is the Mueller investigation. I worry that the headlines generated by the investigation may rattle the markets more than people are currently anticipating. 

I am expecting a choppy, headline-driven, sideways market between now and the November elections.

The long-term outlook is cautious.
The medium-term trend is up (as of March 9).
The short-term trend is up.