When To Expect The Profit Taking Down Day

t’s been an impressive week to say the least, and the question on so many traders’ minds is likely to be, “Should I take profits before the weekend?”

If this question is on your mind, and you’d like to wait until the market is beginning to turn down, then you may want to consider using the Opening Range indicator.

Consider the Opening Range (O.R.) to be the range of the market in the first 30-minutes of the trading day. As you may know, we use and teach this concept as a method for being on the right side of the market on any giving day. The basic use is to view this range as the bull/bear line (area) for the day.

If the market is above the range, there’s a bullish trend, and below it the bears are in control. Since the high or the low of the day is determined nearly 50% of the time by this range, these levels are also great to buy or sell against.

If you look at an intra-day chart of the IWM for this week, you’ll see that it has been a very good example of the power of using the O.R. to determine the low of the day. It has also indicated when the day will trend higher.

For example, every time the IWM retraced to the O.R. low area it turned higher. And when it traded above the O.R. high, it accelerated higher. The bulls are in control.

So when should you anticipate that the market may have more people interested in taking profits than the bulls can handle?

When the SPY, and IWM are both trading under their respective O.R. lows it will be the first sign of this week’s bullish exuberance waning and profit taking may begin.

S&P 500 (SPY) Another strong day. Use the first 30 minutes of the day as a guide for support levels. Also look for support around 223.50.

Russell 2000 (IWM) This is what a melt up feels like. Obviously it can’t continue like this, but I’m not going to try to pick a top. Short term caution under 137. More concerning if it breaks today’s low.

Dow (DIA) Look for support around 194.50.

NASDAQ (QQQ) Has a lot of catching up to do, but I’m not sure it will. Expect big resistance at 119 just like we saw today, Support at 117.

KRE (Regional Banks) My sentiments about IWM are echoed here. Be patient.

SMH (Semiconductors) Acting like a leader again. I expect it to consolidate with support levels at 71.50, 71 and 70.20.

IYT (Transportation) As I said yesterday… Finally took out its 2014 high. Needs to rest to establish new trading levels.

IBB (Biotechnology) Inside day stems the slide. 262 area should be good support, and if the other areas of the market calm down this may pick up. I’d wait for it to clear 275.50 before considering it.

XRT (Retail) I wouldn’t chase it, but as I’ve said, this may surprise investors to the upside into year end. Watch for a pullback. Should be support around 47.15 and it must hold 46.80 area.

GLD (Gold Trust) Over 112.40 it may start to bounce.

GDX (Gold Miners) Consolidation continues. Key levels to break are over 22 and under 20, otherwise it’s just waiting.

USO (US Oil Fund) Closed well, if continues over 11.35 it could get interesting. 11.50 is resistance to watch for, and the big number to clear is 11.80. Also interesting at 10.80 support.

TLT (iShares 20+ Year Treasuries) Stuck in a range? 117.60-120.60.

UUP (Dollar Bull) Closed over the 10-day MA, if it moves over today’s high, watch for a run to the 26.35 highs.

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Chee Hin Teh 7 years ago Member's comment

Thanks for sharing