E We Have No Angst On Election Eve

Where have you gone, H.L. Mencken?  You are much needed in this year of “Hamilton” ascendant on Broadway, Trump triumphant with your “booboisie” and Clinton winning the hearts of all who have told cops or spouses: “That’s my story and I’m sticking to it.”

Now, hip-hop “music” not being our cup of tea, we confess we have not rushed to see the runaway hit, and thus are at a cultural disadvantage to our more with it peers.  So, we are left to wonder if its creators and players captured the contempt with which Washington’s aide-de-camp so full-throatedly held full-throated democracy.  “Your people, sir — your people is a great beast!”  In other words, Hillary’s basket of deplorables; or Donald’s Mexican Muslims. We have met the enemy and he is us! Pogo declared from the comic pages of the Sixties.

On second thought, that old scold Jeremiah put it best: “The harvest is past, the summer is ended, and we are not saved!”

But enough of sages profane and sacred.  You, dear reader, come to us, for practical wisdom this weekend before the election, which has produced anxiety the last fortnight, with stock indexes falling for nine straight trading sessions

Those of you anxious about domestic policy under either candidate should not be so – anxious, that is.  We see little chance of either party controlling executive and legislative branches.  Changes to tax policy or healthcare are unlikely.

Far from perfect, Obamacare is here to stay.  Though premium increases have startled and high deductibles mean you’re really only covered if hit by a bus, it has not proven the job destroyer its critics foretold.  Indeed, labor has become scarce enough to force wages to finally respond.

Thus, as far as the home front figures into it, the expansion will continue, only vulnerable, as it always has been, to a Federal Reserve pulling the tightening trigger too soon and too often.  We think it a mistake to raise rates in December, as the Fed has indicated it will do; if it continues to squeeze money supply in 2017, recession will follow no matter who’s in the oval office.  In our forecast for 2016, The Happy Few of 2016, we japed that Donald Trump would win. It remains a jape.

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Disclosure: I am am long JCP.

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