ViaSat (VSAT) is slated to launch its "ViaSat-2" satellite into orbit tonight, which Wells Fargo says could prove an inflection point for shares of the satellite broadband and networking company.

BACKGROUND: ViaSat's roughly seven-ton "ViaSat-2" satellite is scheduled to launch tonight from Guiana, with the launch window opening at 4:45 pm PT. "The ViaSat-2 mission will take less than 30 minutes from liftoff to separation. Once the satellite separates from the rocket, the next major event will be acquisition, which is the point at which the satellite first communicates with and accepts commands from a ground station. Acquisition is expected to occur approximately 15 minutes after separation from the launch vehicle. At that point, the mission can be considered successful," Viasat explains.

WELLS FARGO SEES INFLECTION POINT: Wells Fargo's Andrew Spinola argues that the likely successful launch tonight should drive "inflection" in the stock. Sentiment on ViaSat is largely negative, with bears focusing on its lack of capacity, expensive share price, multi-year investment phase, and long wait for free cash generation. Spinola, however, sees this creating a "favorable near-term set-up" for bulls: The above-mentioned fears are "well understood" by long investors, and there is little that could happen between now and service entry of ViaSat-2 to dissuade them. The analyst expects shares to outperform as the investment story increasingly shifts from current results to growth in 2018 and beyond, adding that the company is well positioned for "strong growth for a number of years" beginning in that 2018 timeframe as ViaSat-2, and its eventual successor, start yielding gains. On tonight's launch, the analyst notes that the Ariane 5 is the "most reliable" launch vehicle, with 78 consecutive trips without failure. Spinola sees downside risk to $45-$50 and boons for Gogo (GOGO) and Echostar (SATS) on a failure tonight -- though he models just a 1% chance of such an event -- and upside to $96 by 2H18 on a successful mission and subsequent growth from the V-2 and V-3, leading him to keep an Outperform rating on the name.

PRICE ACTION: Shares of ViaSat are up 3.4% to $67.46 in afternoon trading. Over the last three months, the stock is down about 2.25%. "Before the Move" is The Fly's recurring series of exclusive stories that identify potentially market moving events, along with analyst predictions, ahead of the news.