VIX spiked this Wednesday as the stock market crashed. It was a particularly large one-day spike.

But while the overall rise in VIX this week was big, it wasn’t exceptionally big.

VIX spiked more than 3.5 standard deviations above its 20 weekly moving average this week.

Historically, this led to some more short term weakness in the stock market. The S&P 500 fell 75% of the time two weeks later.

As we said before, most of these crashes are followed by a bounce and then a retest.

Here’s what happens next to VIX itself:

As you can see, VIX’s short term is uncertain. If the S&P falls even more, VIX will spike even more. With that being said, the medium term risk:reward for VIX favors the downside.

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