E Trading Adobe After Earnings Today

Adobe (ADBE) is expected to report earnings on Thursday, March 16th. The whisper number is $0.84, three cents behind the analysts' estimate and showing no confidence from the WhisperNumber community. Whispers range from a low of $0.75 to a high of $0.93. Adobe has an 83% positive surprise history (having topped the whisper in 52 of the 63 earnings reports for which we have data).

Earnings history:

  • Beat whisper: 52 qtrs
  • Met whisper: 2 qtrs
  • Missed whisper: 9 qtrs

Our primary focus is on post earnings price movement. Knowing how likely a stock's price will move following an earnings report can help you determine the best action to take (long or short). In other words, we analyze what happens when the company beats or misses the whisper number expectation.

The table below indicates the average post earnings price movement within a one and thirty trading day timeframe:

The strongest price movement of +2.5% comes within thirty trading days when the company reports earnings that beat the whisper number, and -3.0% within five trading days when the company reports earnings that miss the whisper number. While the strongest price moves are as expected, the overall average post earnings price move is 'positive' (beat the whisper number and see strength, miss and see strength) when the company reports earnings. 

The table below indicates the most recent earnings reports and short-term price reaction:

The company has reported earnings ahead of the whisper number in three of the past four quarters with a whisper number. In the comparable quarter last year the company reported earnings six cents ahead of the whisper number. Following that report the stock realized a 5.6% loss in five trading days. Last quarter the company reported earnings eight cents ahead of the whisper number. Following that report the stock realized a 4.5% loss in ten trading days, before turning and seeing a 5.2% gain in thirty trading days. Overall historical data indicates the company to be (on average) a 'positive' price reactor when the company reports earnings.

Disclosure: I/we have no positions in any stocks mentioned, and no plans to initiate any positions within the next 72 hours.

I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am ...

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Comments

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William K. 3 months ago Member's comment

A short-term panic is not very becoming. Long term is much less stressful, I find. And more rewarding with less effort.

WhisperNumber 3 months ago Author's comment

No idea what that means