Harley-Davidson (HOG) is set to announce second quarter earnings Tuesday in the week ahead, with analysts generally expecting a downturn in its EPS from the same year-ago period.

Shares of HOG have fallen roughly 24.7% from their 52-week high of US$55.95 set in late January. They had staged a single-day nosedive of around 6% on June 25, after the popular motorcycle maker said that given the tariffs imposed by the U.S. on EU metals, the company would incur costs of about US$2,200 per average motorcycle export.

HOG said in a recent SEC filing that it “believes the tremendous cost increase, if passed onto its dealers and retail customers, would have an immediate and lasting detrimental impact to its business in the region, reducing customer access to Harley-Davidson products and negatively impacting the sustainability of its dealers’ businesses.”

HOG added it would take steps to lessen “the substantial cost” of the tariff burden long-term, by shifting production of motorcycles destined for the EU from the U.S. to its international facilities.

In its first-quarter outlook for the full-year 2018, HOG said it expects estimated motorcycle shipments of 231k to 236k, with 67.5k to 72.5k in the second quarter. The company also anticipates US$250m-270m in capital spending, with around US$50m earmarked to support manufacturing optimization.

However, the company’s outlook could well change given the more expensive export environment.

Analysts generally expect HOG to earn US$1.34 in Q2’18, down from US$1.48 in the same year-ago quarter, with results due out ahead of the market open on Tuesday, July 24.

Meanwhile, some market experts pointed to HOG as an example of how the recent escalation of U.S. and global trade-related feuds have brought tensions closer to home.

According to Interactive Brokers chief options strategist Steve Sosnick, the news of HOG’s plan to shift some of its production offshore posed a “real psychological blow to the markets.” 

In a video produced for IBKR Traders’ Insight, Sosnick highlighted how the announcement in late June had affected market participants in a “startling” way, as the recent trade war rhetoric had turned from protecting U.S. jobs to costing U.S. jobs, especially at a very major “brand name, U.S., ‘made in America’ type of company.”

In the late afternoon trading session Thursday, HOG’s stock had notched less than 0.1% higher on the day at US$42.13. The OAS on its corporate debt was trading roughly flat at 140bps, with its 3.5% notes due July 2025 1bp tighter on the day at 107bps more than matched-maturity U.S. government bonds.