Today's Trading Plan: The Calm Before Yellen

Technical Analysis:

  • S&P 500 (SPX) experienced a light amount of selling yesterday, forming a doji candle pattern after establishing intraday all-time highs, yet again. 
  • The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) is up 21 of the last 25 days (84% win rate). It was the only index among the big four that finished higher yesterday. 
  • The Federal Reserve will release its FOMC Statement tomorrow, which is almost certain to raise interest rates. The market has rallied very hard over the past month - in particular with the banking sector. If there was ever a moment to be concerned with a "sell-the-news" moment for the market, this would be it. 
  • That doesn't mean we'll see the markets sell-off, but the possibility of it happening is greatly enhanced, especially when you consider how much the market sold off last year following the December rate hike. 
  • I don't plan to go into the FOMC Statement with a strong bias. 
  • The CBOE Market Volatility Index (VIXpopped 7.6% yesterday and is higher 3 out of the last four days, indicating some concerns for the market under the surface. 
  • Light Sweet Crude Oil Futures (/CL) looks to continue yesterday's rally. Though it gave back a good chunk of yesterday's gains, it still managed to trade at its highest level since July of 2015. Careful, considering yesterday's candle, that you could be seeing a blow-off top unfolding. 
  • SPX 30 minute chart is showing some signs of slowing down as it manages to consolidate yesterday, following the major move of the past week. 
  • Weakness in tech, relative to the rest of the market is still apparent and real. 
  • Volume on SPDRs S&P 500 (SPY) picked up some steam yesterday with trading volume coming in above average. 

My Trades:

  • Sold Suntrust Banks (STI) at $54.18 on Friday for a 1.7% profit. 
  • I added a short position as a hedge against my existing long positions.  
  • May look to add some additional short exposure as a hedge against current positions. 
  • I am currently 40% Long / 10% Short / 50% Cash

Chart for SPX:

SP 500 Market Analysis 12 13 16

Disclosure: None.

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Chee Hin Teh 7 years ago Member's comment

Thanks for sharing