Time To Adjust Our Expectations For Apple

steve jobs and tim cook

 

The analysts were right. The day before Apple (AAPL) released its FQ2 2016 earnings report, analysts predicted the company would report its first revenue loss in thirteen years. The actual numbers were worse than they predicted, however, with revenue of $50.6 billion coming in 12.8% lower than this time last year. That’s a $1.37 billion miss from the consensus estimate.

Let’s review some of the other main points of the report:

  • Earnings per share were $1.90, missing analyst estimates by $0.10.
  • iPhone and iPad sales came in slightly better than expected, but Mac sales were below expectations.
  • Guidance for FQ3 is weak, with Apple expecting $41 to $43 billion in revenue versus the consensus of $47.32 billion.
  • The iPhone’s market share has deteriorated from 17.7% to 15.3% from this time last year, led by a 16% slump in shipments.
  • iPad revenue was down 19% and Mac revenue was down 9%, while services revenue (iTunes, App Store, Apple Music, ApplePay) was up 20% and other products revenue (Apple Watch, Apple TV, Beats, iPod) was up 30%.

Suffice it to say Apple may never be the same. The tech pioneer was ahead of the competition when it first revolutionized the music industry with the iPod, the phone industry with the iPhone and the tablet market with the iPad.

The company’s latest products/services, the Apple Watch and Apple Music, are arguably just as good or better than their competitors but they simply aren’t in the same vein as its previous products.

Who’s to blame?

With the latest earnings miss, some are calling for the firing of Tim Cook. While some situations may merit the firing of a CEO (see McDonald’s turnaround before and after former CEO Don Thompson was fired), this isn’t one of those situations.

The real reason why Apple isn’t as innovative as it used to be may have something to do with the loss of founder Steve Jobs, but it likely has more to do with the burgeoning tech space and the fierce competition that simply wasn’t nearly as formidable as Apple in the early to mid-2000s.

Apple still a giant

There’s no reason to think Apple will go away anytime soon. A recent report states that the company generated a whopping 40% of Silicon Valley’s profits last year. The company will continue to provide amazing luxury products and there will always be demand for those products.

One concern, however, remains that the iPhone makes up 65% of the company’s revenue. With iPad and Mac sales struggling and Apple Watch sales likely not enough to replace them, more and more pressure will be placed on the iPhone to perform better and better each year. And since each new generation of the smartphone also comes with a healthy increase in price, there will come a point where it’ll be more and more difficult for users to justify spending more for the latest Apple product.

This will be one major thing Apple will have to consider as it moves forward, but investors should know that it simply may be time to look at Apple differently than we have.

Disclosure: None.

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