These Toymakers Are Expected To Miss Big This Week, And 5 Other Earnings Surprises

Keeping with the trend of the early earnings season (and with historical trends), far more companies reporting this week are expected to beat on EPS expectations than miss. There are seven names in particular this first peak week of earnings that are on our radar. Four are anticipated to be beats and three are expected to be misses.

The Beats

To determine possible positive surprises we look for companies that have the following characteristics: 1. Large positive deltas vs. Wall Street 2. Significant upward revisions momentum into the report  3. Positive YoY growth expectations 4. A long history of beating 5. A long history of Estimize accuracy vs. the Street

GrubHub (GRUB)

Information Technology - Information Technology & Services | Reports July 25, before the open.

The Estimize community is looking for earnings per share (EPS) of $0.45 when GrubHub reports on Wednesday, revised upward by 14% in the last 3 months and 11% higher than Wall Street’s $0.41. Revenues are also expected to come in higher at $234.6M as compared to the sell side’s consensus of $232.6M. Year-over-year (YoY) EPS and revenue growth are expected to come in healthy at 75% and 48%, respectively. GRUB tends to move up an average of 7% in the 30-days post earnings release. This is also a name that tends to beat the Estimize consensus 67% of the time on EPS and 73% on revenues, and that Estimize is more accurate than Wall Street on 60% of the time on EPS and 73% on Revenue.

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While EPS and revenues are important for GRUB, it’s Active Diners that investors will be eager to hear about. Right now the Estimize community is anticipating Active Diners to come in at 15.6M for Q2, an increase of 70% YoY. While this metric came in better than expected last quarter, food sales and daily active orders did not. Still, the company raise guidance for Q2, and hopes to benefit from a healthy US consumer as well as partnerships such as the recent one with Yum! Brands (YUM).

Advanced Micro Devices (AMD)

Information Technology - Semiconductors | Reports July 25, after the close.

The Estimize community is looking for earnings per share (EPS) of $0.14 when AMD reports on Wednesday, revised upward by 38% in the last 3 months and 12% higher than Wall Street’s $0.12. Revenues are also expected to come in higher at $1.759B as compared to the sell side’s consensus of $1.718.B, a number that has been revised upward by 14% since last quarter. Year-over-year (YoY) EPS and revenue growth are expected to come in healthy at 595% and 44%, respectively. AMD tends to move up an average of 6% in the 30-days post earnings release. This is also a name that tends to beat the Estimize EPS consensus 58% of the time, and that Estimize is more accurate than Wall Street on 58% of the time.

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Disclosure: There can be no assurance that the information we considered is accurate or complete, nor can there be any assurance that our assumptions are correct.

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