These Stocks Tend To Perform Well In October (Seasonality)
Before getting into the best historical October stock performers, stocks as a whole (as gauged by S&P 500 index) tend to do well in October. Over the last 20 years, the index has moved higher 65% of the time (number on top of October column), and moved up by an average of 1.9% (number at bottom of October column).
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Strong Seasonality Stocks for October
The statistics below are based on the historic monthly opening and closing prices. Therefore, gains or losses within the month may be larger than those disclosed below. For example, a statistic may say the biggest rally on a monthly basis was 15%, but during the month the stock could have been up 20%, but dropped to only finish the month up 15% (intra-month losses could also be bigger). This is why it is also recommended traders combine these statistics with other strategies, which help control risk and lock in profits.
Buying at the open and close of the month is also somewhat arbitrary. There are more precise times to take trades. Focus on seasonal opportunities that align with strategies you are already using.
This is the raw data. How you interpret it, and what you opt to do with it, is up to you.
All stocks do at least 500K in average daily volume.All stocks with an average or median gains of less than 3% have been excluded.
81% Rally Rate
Sysco Corporation (SYY)
Price has rallied 22 out of 27 years, or 81%.
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Average October gain, for all years, is 4.01%.
In the rising months (22) the average gain has been: 6.08%.
In declining months (5) the average loss is -5.12%.
Biggest gain is 14.6%, and biggest drop is -14.41%.
Automatic Data Processing (ADP)
Price has rallied 22 out of 27 years, or 81%.
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Average October gain, for all years, is 4.24%.
In the rising months (22) the average gain has been: 6.48%.
In declining months (5) the average loss is -5.59%.
Biggest gain is 22.32%, and biggest drop is –18.24%.
78% Rally Rate
Vodafone Group (VOD)
Price has rallied 21 out of 27 years, or 78%.
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Average October gain, for all years, is 5.87%.
In the rising months (21) the average gain has been: 8.8%.
In declining months (6) the average loss is -4.37%.
Biggest gain is 24.09%, and biggest drop is -12.83%.
The Gap (GPS)
Price has rallied 21 out of 27 years, or 78%.
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Average October gain, for all years, is 6.01%.
In the rising months (21) the average gain has been: 9.99%.
In declining months (6) the average loss is -7.91%.
Biggest gain is 28.63%, and biggest drop is -26.8%.
Alaska Air Group (ALK)
Price has rallied 21 out of 27 years, or 78%.
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Average October gain, for all years, is 7.38%.
In the rising months (21) the average gain has been: 10.87%.
In declining months (6) the average loss is -4.86%.
Biggest gain is 25.65%, and biggest drop is -7.72%.
Adobe Systems (ADBE)
Price has rallied 21 out of 27 years, or 78%.
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Average October gain, for all years, is 7.61%.
In the rising months (21) the average gain has been: 12.07%.
In declining months (6) the average loss is -7.99%.
Biggest gain is 26.79%, and biggest drop is -32.51%.
Apple Inc (AAPL)
Price has rallied 21 out of 27 years, or 78%.
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Average October gain, for all years, is 7.2%.
In the rising months (21) the average gain has been: 12.42%.
In declining months (6) the average loss is -11.06%.
Biggest gain is 35.06%, and biggest drop is -23.98%.
74% Rally Rate
Microsoft Corporation (MSFT)
Price has rallied 20 out of 27 years, or 74%.
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Average October gain, for all years, is 5.46%.
In the rising months (20) the average gain has been: 9.09%.
In declining months (7) the average loss is -4.92%.
Biggest gain is 24.94%, and biggest drop is -16.32%.
Edison International (EIX)
Price has rallied 20 out of 27 years, or 74%.
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Average October gain, for all years, is 4.36%.
In the rising months (20) the average gain has been: 7.93%.
In declining months (7) the average loss is -5.84%.
Biggest gain is 25.24%, and biggest drop is -10.81%.
The Chubb Corporation (CB)
Price has rallied 20 out of 27 years, or 74%.
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Average October gain, for all years, is 4.78%.
In the rising months (20) the average gain has been: 7.36%.
In declining months (7) the average loss is -2.61%.
Biggest gain is 22.09%, and biggest drop is -5.24%.
CA Inc (CA)
Price has rallied 20 out of 27 years, or 74%.
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Average October gain, for all years, is 8.36%.
In the rising months (20) the average gain has been: 13.99%.
In declining months (7) the average loss is -7.73%.
Biggest gain is 54.73%, and biggest drop is -12.65%.
Archer-Daniels-Midland (ADM)
Price has rallied 20 out of 27 years, or 74%.
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Average October gain, for all years, is 5.37%.
In the rising months (20) the average gain has been: 8.68%.
In declining months (7) the average loss is -4.09%.
Biggest gain is 27.47%, and biggest drop is -8.02%.
Final Word on the Strong October Seasonality Stocks
This is the raw data. What you do with it is up to you. All traders are encouraged to do their own research and apply their own strategies if utilizing these statistics.
Each stock has a different risk profile. While the ‘average gain’ statistic is a key metric, it doesn’t tell the whole story. Making 7% may seem attractive but when looking at the volatility it may be more than you are willing to handle. Therefore, look at the all the data when deciding what to trade. Also, apply other technical and fundamental metrics to help zero-in on exact entry and exit points. Seasonality is not covered in my stock trading course, because it is a not a requirement for successful trading. That said, it is an additional tool you can use.
Disclosure: The author doesn’t have positions in these stocks currently, but may initiate positions if the stock prices slide a bit lower.
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