The Home Depot: Buy The Serial Dividend Raiser

The Home Depot (NYSE: HD ) has just reported earnings and the stock looks set to move on the news. As you know this is our home improvement store of choice that we highlighted well over one year ago with a buy recommendation. The Home Depot remains a strong name. That is right. It is a retailer and one that is doing well. While the retail sector is getting demolished, and HD did take a hit thanks to the selling, it is back up and only a few points off its 52 week high. The name is still a pin action play on a strong housing market, as well as a strong economy, but it is a retailer nonetheless. We stand by this pick because it has delivered, and much of the selling is noise related to overall fears in the sector. Now we are in 2018, so the question is do we stick by the name? The answer is a resounding 'yes,' but we need to check into the performance of the company.

Home Depot's just reported earnings were once again strong. In fact, it was once again a dandy of a quarter. That said, the company still has a valuation that is pricing continued growth at 24 times current earnings. But this is justifiable if the growth continues, and frankly, the growth is evident. Judging from this performance in Q4, the growth is there and looks set to continue, so its pricing is still justified. Barring overall market turmoil, it's going higher.

The company saw strong Q4 sales of $23.9 billion. This was a 7.5% increase compared to Q4 2016, and beat by a solid $240 million against consensus, and surpassed our more bullish expectations by $100 million.

We think comparable store sales tell an even stronger story. In fact, they were one of the largest highlights of the report. They came in +7.5% in Q4, and comparable sales for U.S. stores continue to be strong, coming in at +6.2%. This continues to be solid growth for a company of this size and continues a long run of growth. While there was recent selling pressure, so far the company is holding up its end of the bargain for our 2017 buy call. The data also clearly suggests it was a good call as a top choice in the retail space, which is still being battered.

As you can imagine rising comparable sales and higher revenues led to better earnings. This is because the company has historically been exceptional at managing its expenses. Here in this report earnings per share were up 5.6% year-over-year. Net earnings for Q4 2017 came in at $1.8 billion. This translates to $1.52 per share, compared to $1.44 per share brought in during Q4 2016.

Tax Cuts and Jobs Act of 2017 resulted in an additional net tax expense of approximately $150 million. The provisional amount recorded in the fourth quarter was $127 million. This charge, coupled with the one-time bonus payment to hourly associates that was also announced on January 25, 2018, negatively impacted fourth quarter and fiscal 2017 diluted earnings per share by approximately $0.17. When we factor in this and other adjustments, earnings per share was $1.69.

These results surpassed estimates by $0.05. While much of this improvement is from fiscal discipline and of course from rising sales, the earnings per share bump also reflects the company's buyback which improves the earnings per share a bit. Still, the continued growth is impressive and, in light of that, this remains a stock that you should consider on any meaningful pullback. Let us be clear. The name not only set new sales and earnings records, it smashed prior records. Craig Menear, Chairman and Chief Executive Officer and President of Home Depot, stated:

"Our ongoing commitment to enhance the interconnected retail experience for our customers, provide localized and innovative product and deliver best in class productivity resulted in record sales and net earnings for 2017. I would like to thank our associates for their solid execution and exceptional work in service to our customers."

Strong sales and earnings, as well as continued growth in comparable sales justify our buy call. We think you can do some buying here. Earnings and sales both beat estimates. That is the type of growth you like to see from a company you are invested in. For the last few quarters the company has met or beat expectations for the most part, and we see this continuing. Recall that Home Depot is a serial guidance raiser and is another reason we like this name long-term.

Finally, the name is shareholder friendly. We would be remiss if we did not mention that the company recently gave us a nice raise of a 15.7% hike to the dividend. In addition, it is buying back shares. That is a winning combination. Home Depot consistently meets or beats expectations on many metrics. Bottom line, it's a winner and you should be buying these dips.

Disclosure: Long HD

Quad 7 Capital has been a leading contributor with various financial outlets since early 2012. If you like the material and want to see more, scroll to the top of the article ...

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Kurt Benson 6 years ago Member's comment

I've been bullish on $HD for quite a while. It's looking great at the moment.