Morgan Stanley analyst Adam Jonas estimates the global population of Tesla vehicles on the road will triple by the end of 2019 as the company launches its mass-market Model 3 and can multiply ten times compared to year-end 2017 by early 2023.

While rising miles traveled for its fleet can help Tesla train its machine-learning network faster than competitors, Tesla will also be exposed to things that can potentially go wrong and its investment in charging and service infrastructure "will be put to the test," said Jonas, who keeps an Equal Weight rating on Tesla shares.