Tech Talk: Base On Base Pattern

Where do you get most of the information for the stocks you buy? The fact that right now you are reading this online suggests that you probably don’t get your info from a daily newspaper. To me that’s a reason to investigate stocks that convey my daily information to me. One such – it’s a Canadian company – is Quebecor, Inc.(QBCRF).

Full disclosure: I bought some of the stock after it bounced off the blue line above – the one described as Base 2. The reason is that I saw – or hoped I saw – a base-on-base pattern forming. 

Quebecor provides a wireless business in parts of Canada, and from a fundamental side in recent days the company reported that growth in that area has been strong. On the other hand, cable TV subscriptions are down. The Montréal-based company reported total revenue of $993-million last quarter, up 3 per cent. Profit per share was 57 cents.

Now, that’s enough about the fundamentals. Here’s what a base-on-base pattern is all about. It is a continuation pattern, which occurs when a stock is struggling to get through a bout of crappy trading – often because the market in that area has been a bit bearish.

Two features of this pattern are prominent: Price action and volume action. In the first stage, trading volume is low. In the second it is higher. When the breakout finally occurs, it is high. (These are, of course, relative terms.)

During the first stage of the base pattern, prices struggle toward a breakout, which in this began last November: shares hit $31, which was a breakout, but volume remained low. Base two involved higher volumes, but it needed high volumes before the breakout could occur. Those volumes came in May, but didn’t lead to a decisive breakout until about a month ago. You will notice that each stage tends to begin with higher volumes, although those volumes tend to decline as the weeks wear on.

As Quebecor illustrates, base-on-base patterns can stay in place for months while the larger market corrects. If the stock’s fundamentals support it, of course.

Full disclosure: None.

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