We are off to a strong start in the Q2 earnings season, with all around positive surprises and plenty of momentum on the revenue side. Importantly, estimates for Q3 and beyond are holding up nicely.

With results from 87 S&P 500 members that combined account for a quarter of the index’s total capitalization, we can say with a fair level of confidence that the Q2 earnings season is on track to be as good as what we saw in 2018 Q1. Please recall that Q1 earnings growth had reached the highest level in more than 7 years, with many seeing that growth pace representing a peak.

The blended Q2 earnings growth (blending the reported with the unreported) at present of +21% is below the preceding quarter’s +24.6% level. But given the momentum we have seen from the 87 S&P 500 members that have reported already, both in terms of growth as well as positive surprises, we can see Q2 earnings growth steadily moving towards the Q1 level as the remainder of this earnings season unfolds.

This week is particularly busy in that respect, with more than 750 companies reporting results, including 175 S&P 500 members. This week’s reporting docket has representation from a cross section of the business world, from Alphabet (GOOGL) and Facebook (FB) to 3M (MMM), Boeing (BA), Exxon (XOM) and plenty in between.

Let me share one standout feature the Q2 results thus far before we get into the scorecard. This standout feature pertains to revenues, with the proportion of companies beating revenue Q2 estimates tracking significantly above any other recent period. You can see this in the chart below which shows that the proportion of companies beating revenue estimates is tracking 20 percentage points above the average over the last twelve quarters.

Q2 Earnings Season Scorecard (as of July 20^th, 2018)

We now have Q2 results from 87 S&P 500 members that combined account for 25.7% of the index’s total market capitalization, with total earnings for these 87 companies up +20.9% from the same period last year on +10.3% higher revenues, with 86.2% of the companies beating EPS estimates, and 77% surpassing revenue estimates.

The comparison charts below put results from these 87 index members in a historical context.

As you can see, the growth pace is a tad bit below prior-quarter’s level, but materially above the 4- and 12-qurater averages. The proportion of positives surprises, as earlier pointed out, is tracking materially above historical periods.

The chart below zooms in on the revenue side of the results thus far.

Please note that the Q2 revenue growth comparison (left-hand chart above) moves above the preceding quarter’s level when seen on an ex-Finance basis.

Overall Expectations for 2018 Q2

Looking at Q2 as a whole, combining the actual results from the 87 index members with estimates from the still-to-come 413 companies, total earnings are expected to be up +21% from the same period last year on +8.3% higher revenues, with double-digit earnings growth for 11 of the 16 Zacks sectors. This would follow +24.6% earnings growth in 2018 Q1 on +8.7%, the highest growth in almost 7 years.

The table below shows the summary picture for Q2, contrasted with what was actually achieved in Q1.

The Earnings Growth Peak

The chart below compares current Q2 earnings growth expectations with what was actually achieved in the preceding 5 quarters and what is expected in the following 4 quarters.

When market commentators talk about earnings growth peak, it is the growth comparison in this chart they are referring to. Looking at this chart, it is obvious that growth has peaked already, with the pace decelerating going forward.

We should keep in mind however that actual results typically come in better than expected, with actuals exceeding estimates in the 3% to 5% range. This means that the 21% growth pace currently expected in Q2 will likely be closer to the 2018 Q1 tally when all is said and done.

The chart below shows the growth pace on trailing 4-quarter basis, which tends to smooth out the quarter-to-quarter jumps.

The two charts above provide different answers to the ‘peak earnings’ question. The first chart shows that the growth rate likely peaked in 2018 Q1, while second chart shows the expected to ‘peak’ to arrive in the last quarter of the year.

We should keep in mind that this earnings cycle got underway back in 2009 when the U.S. economy got out of its last recession. By this time, earnings growth should have come down to the historical ‘normalized’ pace in the mid-single digits level. The reason we have these impressive growth numbers is thanks mostly to the effect of the tax cuts, which will start wearing off towards the end of 2019.

In other words, earnings likely haven’t peaked yet. But with this cycle so long in the tooth, we are steadily moving towards that stage.

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Here is a list of the 668 companies including 175 S&P 500 and reporting this week.