Plug Power (PLUG) stock is back under $2 a share. In the column, we discuss shipments, sales, and the balance sheet as we head into 2018. We believe shares have faltered because while earnings have eluded the company, sales had kept the stock strong. That said, sales have now begun to show some pain too.

In the most recent quarter, we noted several important trends to be aware of. First, shipments. They were up year-over-year. The company shipped a total of 1,357 GenDrive units, up from 1,204 a year ago. In addition, three GenFuel site were installed as opposed to five last year. What we see as one strength is growth in the positive margin services side of the business. Factoring in the activity over the last year, there are now over 16,600 GenDrive units under service or PPA contracts, up from 11,000 a year ago.

When it comes to earnings, we think it is in these contracts and in the margins on GenDrive units where the company has got to do more work. It is here that the company has a chance to push back toward breakeven. It is our belief however that the company has got to be significantly more aggressive in cutting costs, as the company is burning cash.

As for the top line, total revenue for the quarter was $33.7 million, up just 3.3% year-over-year. Of course, we understand that that the timing of contracts and deals impact what we see quarter-to-quarter. This is why Q3 was super strong. For a company like Plug Power, we should look at annual performance.

On an annual basis, we see revenues did rise 55% over last year to $133 million. However, 2018 sales from management’s viewpoint are going to grow, but at a reduced pace. We say that because management has guided $155 to $180 million for 2018 sales. This is below the growth percentages we saw last year. Just a few weeks ago, the general consensus from analysts was that 2018 revenue growth would be on par with 2017. We suppose the guidance is more realistic. Long-time investors can attest, while past performance is no guarantee of future performance, management historically overpromised and underdelivered.

What about the balance sheet? Well although there was positive cash flow from operations in Q4, the company's liquidity looks pretty tight again. Plug has unrestricted cash of just $24.8 million at the end of 2017 and expects large losses for the first half of 2018. It also widened its loan with New York State, though total long-term debt was down over $7 million from a year ago. Still, this limited cash means that the company will have to rely on working capital improvements and a timely refinancing of Walmart leases to avoid raising more capital over the course of the year. That is a precarious position.

As far as the company's inventory position, it continued to rise during Q4, up more than 60% year-over-year to $48.8 million with a corresponding increase in accounts payable. We will be watching to see how much the company can reduce inventories as the year progresses.

Looking ahead, we have been disappointed time and again with this management team and the company. On the other, we are not blind to the immense improvements in sales. We think the data supports a stock that will be range bound, but it is a speculative buy under $2.