Netflix Continues To Gain: Will It Sustain The Momentum?

Yesterday, video streaming service giant, Netflix, Inc. (NFLX - Analyst Report) moved 5.2% higher to close at $117.10 per share. Per TheStreet, a report from Ericsson, which stated that mobile data traffic is expected to witness a 10 times jump by 2021, triggered the rally.

Per the report, video will comprise 70% of the total mobile traffic, up from 50% estimated earlier. Though Alphabet, Inc.’s (GOOGL - Analyst Report) YouTube will account for 70% of the total video traffic in most mobile networks, Netflix has the potential to reach 20% in the regions it operates.

Another report that got Netflix shares soaring this week came from “Land Down Under”.Per a report from the Australian Communications and Media Authority, Netflix attracted 2.5 million subscribers in the first six months of 2015, making a grand entry in Australia.

Per the report, nearly 17% Australians or 3.2 million consumers used streaming services in the first six months of 2015, of which a major chunk (78%) belongs to Netflix Australia. For the seven-day period prior to Jun 2015, 2.2 million consumers subscribed to streaming services, of which 88% used Netflix Australia, outpacing local streaming service providers like Stan, Presto and Quickflix.

We believe Netflix has tremendous growth opportunities. The company is aggressively expanding internationally, especially in emerging economies where the potential for subscriber growth is high. The company plans to cover 200 countries by 2016. Currently, it is available in over 50 countries apart from the U.S., including 13 European nations. Netflix entered Canada in late 2010 and has since expanded its business to Latin America & the Caribbean (Sep 2011), the U.K. and Ireland (Jan 2012) and the Netherlands (Sep 2013). In 2014, Netflix expanded its services to six new European countries — Germany, Austria, Switzerland, France, Belgium and Luxembourg.

Netflix also launched its services in Japan, its first Asian market. Going ahead, Netflix remains focused on Asian markets and will start offering its services in South Korea, Singapore, Hong Kong and Taiwan in early 2016. In addition, the company is planning to expand into China and is reportedly in talks with Chinese broadcasting executives in an attempt to enter the market.

We believe that capitalizing on growing markets is the right strategy for the company to expand its reach as domestic markets are getting saturated. In the third quarter of 2015, in the International Streaming segment, the company recorded 25.99 million members compared with 15.84 million in the comparable prior-year quarter. It recorded 2.74 million net new members in the quarter, compared with 2.04 million a year ago. Paid members were 23.95 million, up from 14.39 million at the end of the year-ago quarter.In total, Netflix now has over 69 million subscribers across the globe.

Moreover, in the third quarter, revenues from international operations soared nearly 49.5% year over year to $516.9 million driven by robust growth in paid members.

In addition, the significant subscriber growth can be attributed to Netflix’s diversified streaming content. The company has licensing agreements with several major Hollywood production houses. Moreover, Netflix has expanded its original programming portfolio through partnerships with the likes of CBS Corporation (CBS - Analyst Report), DreamWorks Animation, AMC and The Walt Disney Company (DIS - Analyst Report). These partnerships have helped the company to venture into different genres like comedy, political thrillers, autobiographies and horror, thereby attracting more subscribers.

Netflix expects to add 1.65 million subscribers in the U.S. and 3.5 million subscribers internationally in the current quarter.However, increasing content acquisition costs and intensifying competition remain an area of concern.

With a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold), Netflix has been on a bit of a roller-coaster ride this year. Following the stock split on Jul 7, 2015, shares went as high as $129.29 and also touched a low of $85.50 with an overall gain of 19.3% in the period.

 

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