Markets: Winter Is Coming

I can’t remember the last time I saw a negative number for the monthly Non-farm Payroll Report.

Yet that is exactly what we got for September. It was the worst employment report in many years.

As I predicted in this space, the report had “hurricane” written all over it.

Making matters worse is the fact that the data was collected right when the hurricanes hit, further muddling the data.

Some -33,000 jobs were lost last month.

The Headline Unemployment Rate came in at 4.2%, a new 16 year low, while the U-6 long-term structurally unemployed “discouraged” worker rate was 8.3%.

More than 40,000 private sector jobs were lost, and the July and August reports were revised down -51,000.

Food Services and drinking places down a staggering -105,000. Health care was up +23,000, and Transportation and Warehousing up +22,000.

A further 1.5 million workers had jobs but didn’t go to work due to the hurricanes.

The markets didn’t care a whit.

At its worst, the Dow Average dropped 44 points. Bonds on the other hand, which should have rallied on the weak report, took it on the nose and dove a full point.

Clearly, there is still a lot of pent-up bond selling to play out, which is why I am running a double short position in US Treasury bonds (TLT).

The truly amazing thing about last week was how sector rotation abruptly ended and EVERYTHING went up in unison.

Sectors that had been dead for years, like the autos, went ballistic.

Usually, this is classic market topping action.

Did I go out and bet the ranch on the short side?

Hell, no!

Because this time it’s different.

The Seller’s Strike that I wrote about yesterday is the primary explanation, which could continue for the rest of 2017.

I continue to maintain a profitable long position in (AAPL).

My only loser is a position on the iPath S&P 500 VIX Short-Term Futures ETN (VXXJanuary 20, 2018, $60 calls, which I bought as a hedge against the market NOT going up every day forever.

That brings my 2017 year-to-date performance to 52.28%, my trailing 12-month figure to 64.50%, and my gains since inception to 270.84%.

My average annualized return for the past eight years is now 34.59%.

It’s all something to brag about at the country club.

It will be a very slow, shortened week on the data front.

On Tuesday, October 10 at 6:00 AM EST we learn the September NFIB Small Business Optimism Index, which is based on a questionnaire of 10 seasonally adjusted indicators.

On Wednesday, October 11, at 2:00 PM EST we obtain the minutes of the last FOMC Meeting on September 19. Now we learn the truth.

Thursday, October 12 at 8:30 AM we know the September Producer Price Index, a reliable read on inflation pressures.

Then at 8:30 AM EST we learn the Weekly Jobless Claims, which could be anywhere, thanks to the twin hurricanes.

On Friday, October 13 at 8:30 AM we receive the Consumer Price Index, a reliable read on inflation pressures at the consumer level.

Wrapping up the week at 1:00 PM is the Baker-Hughes Rig Count, which delivered another rare fall last week.

When all that is done I will be gone on my first high altitude snowshoe of the year at 10,000 feet, where there is already two feet of snow.

I will top that off with a big spaghetti dinner in honor of the intrepid Italian explorer.

Good luck and good trading.

Winter is Coming

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