Market-break characteristics are not yet present, with presumptions for sure that we continue to work higher in the intraweek 'technical food-chain', as projected from the Monday morning washout 'mini-shakeout'.

That call was for the S&P first to rebound and reach 2340 (basis June) then challenge what I view as a 'standard deviation mean' around the 2360 'ish' area, which is where we hesitated late Tuesday. Then (because there also is a declining trend consideration) we work into territory that conjures-up all sorts of rationalizations about 'why' the stock market is ignoring the news.

Actually there is nothing surprising about this market from a trading or from a technical analysis perspective; it is doing just what we called for. That doesn't mean the market is focused only on growth initiatives, on earnings, the Fed, or even politics (unless they actually do intervene of course). It means the market is rebounding because it simply had to from a trading standpoint (as forecast) and because what in this case was the 'alternative', would have been considerably less pleasant.

One of the keys to the recovery (or extension since NASDAQ was strong as well as key stocks like Apple and so on), was OIL...both Crude and the XOI Oil Index. Our call was for a crowded trade by oil bears to be run-in almost regardless of what comes later. I think that sort of applies to stocks as well.
 

For Oil, the debate is all talking points, such as possible OPEC extensions to the current production limits deal. Attempting to make sense of the mixed signals coming from OPEC's members is absurd and, insignificant. Why? Because the outcome of extension or no extension, will yield results that are similar, baring a geopolitical event triggering a big Oil move.

If OPEC extends production cuts we get another vicious cycle: prices rise, more rigs get added in U.S., production increases and prices stall. If OPEC and NOPEC members do not reach an accord, then we will see 2014-16 or similar; each producer ramping production vying for market share. It would produce a trading range limbo, but that beats sharply lower prices.

In-sum: this is an interim day for our projected intraweek rally. Oil matters, and was a key player in getting this revival; now we need it to hang-in just a bit longer ideally. It's also better for markets, but my point for now was that we needed Oil and Financials to assist a bit in lifting this over key technical resistance, which remains a work-in-progress.