Market Briefing For Tuesday, July 17

The 'Summit Optics' were universally not well received. That's primarily because the President tried to decouple reconciliation (or moves toward a more stable relationship) from a political perspective, while being lots more forthright when it comes to realizing Russia is a force to be reckoned with.

Certainly the visual is of a President disconnected from his own staff; while perhaps in his mind it's a focus on 'his' involvement (or lack) domestically; while most of his Cabinet and staff are focused on the various threats. Put simply: most are more hawkish on Russia. I was intrigued that Russia and the USA referred to the 'disengagement treaty' that would push-back Iran, or its related forces in Syria, from the area near Golan. That's clearly a real positive, but of course pales to how much focus drifts to the political side.  

I was actually pleased both sides will establish working groups on several issues; but I'm in-favor of racheting-up the talks, not the confrontations. I do believe the President could have been more forthright on indictments at the same time realizing that would have been a nonstarter with Putin. The offers of exchanging interrogators between the countries was excessively balanced (as it's Russia that did the interference) but is likely unrealistic, if not actually disingenuous (and simply won't happen). It was 'face saving'.  

The stock market was down early and had a 'relief rally' but in the wake of the News Conference I thought traders should not expect much more. We should focus on the main influence on this market, which was the Oil drop, and also the IMF warning of a 'big break' risk in financial assets, which to a degree dovetails my own concerns; but emphasizes it in a global fashion.

Sentiments continue trying to rationalize chasing stocks; while harp on the 'yield curve' issues. In reality trade deals (or lack) likely determine what will be on-tap near-term; and that's very important considering that we're likely at 'peak earnings' so the market is more vulnerable to disappointments vs. responding favorable to already-anticipated solid reports.  

This extended market is also migrating into a seasonally weak time; with a cooling-off period for the market essentially postponed partially as a result of all the 'warnings' from some pundits; which ironically increases positions on the short-side; but again all that does is create bounces (short squeeze moves) which are unsustainable. Hence the 'Rinse & Repeat' cycles.  

Bottom line: these series of oscillating moves frustrate traders for sure; at the same time day-traders have been able to scalp relatively tiny moves. It is just the type of frustration that convinces everyone that algo-driven S&P 'computer' moves have taken over permanently. Actually they did; but less so more recently. It's become more a market of stocks, and that's evident.

It also should be noted that as the support provided by Oil stocks fades for at least a bit, the illusion of a monolithic market capable of advance fades. I continue to suspect (especially in August and September) that Volatility is a serious risk; not disaster, but meaningful corrective action.  

In sum: while it seemed President Trump excessively 'shielded' Russia's Putin; it was useful that UK PM May called him to task in Parliament. So at the same time I personally heard Putin's (little noticed aside remark) where he admitted not just being 'for' Trump; but ordering his staff to be helpful.. I hope he will be helpful beyond politics, and proceeding in imperative areas that do define war and peace; such as pressing Syria's Iranian allies to get out of the 'disengagement' area near Israel's Golan. Media seems only to care about the Washington-Russia intrigue; it matters but so do efforts that can ease military tensions, and avoid intentional or accidental conflict.  

The market may now, as I've suspected, return to the focus on 'Trade' and tariffs; and that's why the IMF warning this morning was quite timely so we traders and investors, keep our eye on the ball which we do care about on a daily basis and it's not the soccer ball for Baron Trump (listening device embedded or not). The espionage charge against a Russian woman who tried to broker an earlier Trump-Putin meeting peaks a bit of interest too.  

  

Conclusion: a well-intended effort to reset relations with Russia went wild and astray, both with topics and interpretations. I know the President tries to backpedal his words; and it's a shame that he didn't frame them better in the first place. Elevating Putin was partially a mistake without a serious set of concessions; and partially not given accords on working together for Middle East security and so on. The scenario appears worse because of a bit of stumbling around with NATO and the UK; even though those ended in a better tone.  

  

Not pressing Putin on the chemical agents (on behalf of the UK) or on human rights; and acting 'as if' Russia was a democracy; at this point was too much. However of course the Russians loved it, and the media over there is praising Trump to the Heavens tonight. Over here it's a time for reflection, recriminations, investigations, and mostly explanations as to why this couldn't have been handled (or at least framed) better. And leave it to the Dow Jones to have the narrowest trading day of the year.

How did you like this article? Let us know so we can better customize your reading experience.

Comments

Leave a comment to automatically be entered into our contest to win a free Echo Show.