Market Briefing For Thursday, February 23

Distorted reporting and disruptive events certainly persist as tactics of the political rejectionists, and so far that is not impeding the market gains in an overall sense. In fact, it helps the market as traders try shorting and as they soon realize it doesn't work, they get run in and prices recover.
 

However, as we've noted before, this is very unusual activity, technically. It's a market that is overbought 'in a sense' but working towards oversold when viewed through the lens of other indicators. Really that's a sign of rotation, a reflection of short-covering, and a modicum of upside capitulation going on.

There is no precise technical correlation to another time, as I've pointed-out while others keep looking at Fibonacci or other levels to device a breaking point for the S&P. How's that worked for all the doubters these past months?

Now well of course; and while we've been entirely bullish throughout, I'm not suggesting anyone in their right mind chase the expensive stocks here. Also not suggesting anyone liquidate investment positions or anything like that. I also have resisted any temptation (and I've had none) to fade or short this monster of an entirely projected bull market thrust.

One thing I said for several weeks of narrow range movement, was that the failure to drop meaningfully after a breakout had to be 'respected', since the normal expectation of such behavior is the market works to higher levels.

However it's an advance occurring now as a 'flagpole & pennant' on top of a long-run advance; but it's not overbought other than with short-term RSI or Stochastic readings. That doesn't mean something doesn't break it; while it also is what a 'continuation pattern' looks like.

But the 'upside angle of attack' is one that typically is short-lived; so we will point that out. Concurrently, this market is sort of up and 'waiting for Godot', in that we're told Healthcare and/or 'tax reform' packages are forthcoming in a matter of days if not a week or two, despite every effort by opponents to try to forestall the Administration's focus on these important elements.

Even before the Election I felt there was a decidedly political 'tone' to stocks that ordinary fundamental or technical analysis could not assess adequately and obviously did not. Just look at the funds or hedgers who got caught-up in being bearish, or worse, overlooked the 'realignment' that was going on.

In-sum: Everything I wrote last night and before still pertains; the market is trying to end an intraweek rally extension; and the jury is out of that as all it takes is a few words about taxes, or oil rebounding, and off we go again. I just don't think it wise to get complacent about that; and discuss further the odd appearance of some chart indicators during this market anomaly from a technical standpoint; but one that we sniffed-out as persisting upside that's a bit more dangerous now.

Disclosure: None.

How did you like this article? Let us know so we can better customize your reading experience.

Comments

Leave a comment to automatically be entered into our contest to win a free Echo Show.