Market Briefing For Thursday, December 22

The 'Teutonic shifts' intended to transform America into a modernized as well as efficient growth engine that it once was, relates to lots more than defining when the current post-Election romp settles-back (beyond that seen today).

It relates to dismissing much (not all) of what was addressed during political campaigns, and recognizing that this isn't about 'elites' (opposed in election talk and then as some think injected into Government; when it's seriously of not quite the same 'elites', as Trump is focused on business leaders not political or agenda-driven presumed intellectuals). It's about what these guys and a couple gals know best: making decisions and getting stuff done.

It's about securing the Nation 'better'; while allowing business to ramp-up as quickly as it can, realizing that new factories and projects will take time just to plan, prepare and bring to fruition. Same with repatriation of jobs..whether or not protectionism becomes involved (which others have done to us and of course are now protesting). Near term it's a gamble on optimism and larger spending plans by companies and consumers; against backdrop that's more like a recession than anything else.

But that's a bit of a 'hook', because the move is broadening-out; many stock sectors that have been moribund are not really extended; and especially as one contemplates the impact of proposed tax cuts, presumably retroactive. So sure, trees don't grow to the sky and I'm not going to reiterate what we'd said about risks from tax settlement dates later next week; nor the debate as to what kind of multiple you put on stocks given these variables.

Basically we've said we would, and have been bullish, from the Election as the premise that the market would celebrate what is almost the antithesis of what's gone on previously, beyond the emergency rescue of the Nation after the forecast 'Epic Debacle' of 2007-2008. Then a feisty new Obama did rise to the challenge; showing some courage with the bailout of GM (remember when it was nicknamed Government Motors and how opposed Romney and others were?); as well as a few other deals. Subsequent to stabilization his Administration's focus shifted, while Congress was a roadblock, and the Fed was essentially charged with all the 'heavy lifting' to the extend it did much, as though a lot of lower-end or service-related jobs returned or got created; not many were of the caliber or the salaries that existed before.

The conventional wisdom is the halcyon days of America can't return, and if nothing else, that demographics (of several types) prevents that prospect. In a sense we've said that too; but once the backdrop was totally reversed in a way that gives the Nation 'more' than a 'hail Mary's' chance of solid revival (if you like on an acceptable though debt-encumbered base just preceding); we believed a 'renaissance' was indeed possible. It's something I've called for over the last couple years; and felt to do otherwise would be defeatist.

Bottom-line:

Tonight I'll just sum-up that nothing has changed. It's skittish; it is capable of a form of topping-process short-term; but isn't a 1929 calamity shaping-up as some suggest. Nor is it a panacea with extreme gains flowing near-term, though ultimately things 'may' click enough to justify the optimism that others see. At least we have envisioned the market's comeback, and an approach to governance that liberates the private sector from what basically was suppression by 'policy', and we don't just mean regulations.

I tended to focus on 'excessive' globalism, with our own leadership failing to defend or protect the American private sector (not just manufacturing); even after it was clear from 'facts', not merely a belief about 'deconstruction' seen for decades, facilitated by both political parties (initially without realization of what it would do to the Nation 'as if' all that mattered was low retail prices for consumer goods).

There are too many variables for 2017 to debate right now since any views on how it will go are 'at best' guesses at how much can be achieved quickly. I have and will speculate about that more as time evolves, but suspect what we get is neither immediate utopia nor any sort of market catastrophe bears have persisted in talking about during our post-Election bullishness. Since I have been bullish through this and of course it's vulnerable as the new year starts, and now those who challenge my view are belatedly optimistic, well, it is enough reason to be a bit cautious about (and no need to) chasing gains.

Disclosure: None.

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