A myriad of concerns for the near-term still contributes to perpetuating a climate of not so much complacency, as fear of shorting the market.  Every time they try it, the shorts get run in and you get unsustainable lifts for the most part, with the S&P eking out higher levels as Apple and Oil to a degree help the Indexes sustain illusions of an immortal advance. 

Meanwhile more harsh weather threatens the U.S. although my suspicion that Hurricane Jose will be a 'fish storm' is mostly reasonable although it may clip Cape Cod but importantly should miss New Jersey where a few refineries are located (heavy seas on Long Island are likely). In either case Oil has been strong as suspected, and is helping the broad market.

Daily action appears superficially unfazed by anything. This itself can be part of'calm before the storm' for markets or they can slip by relatively unscathed, sort of like parts of Florida were able to (a disaster versus a catastrophe is a comparison of correction risk to the lesser chance of a market crash). 

The world and the markets are acting as if there are no revolutionary shifts going on: geopolitically, climate-wise, economically (US income detached from market reality) or in monetary policy, which remains docile relative to statements of intent (and that calmness has helped markets as well). It's a condition subject to being recognized a bit more in weeks ahead.

Basically we can't say (as others are) that the secular move is over as markets pretend they continue. We can say that the disconnect between reality for the household sector, and the limits on discretionary spending, are really troubling. The risk/reward ration generally favors corrective action forthcoming.

Bottom line 

The market remains poised and churning at the highs with some risk of a correction anytime though it could hold together into early October, particularly if Apple stays firm and Oil holds the area around 50 or even a bit higher. There is no change in our view of limited upside with correction risk remaining fairly high, but resisting caving in thus far.

Weekend (final) MarketCast