Market Briefing For Monday, Oct. 23

Endangered species like bears are struggling to emerge from an historic hibernation. Also there's no assurance that's immediately on tap now for a single reason...expectation of an expedited movement toward tax reform. I am going to add another reason, because it matters a lot to the S&P now. 

As we observed in Thursday's remarks (which also anticipated a dismal GE report) I suggested that 'if' the market could absorb the GE story (following a post-IBM-solo-rally taking the Dow to another threshold without any broad participation).. if the S&P could do that, we'd move higher into the weekend.

That's all achieved; I won't belabor what we've already explored; but will just highlights a few factors that might have some direct or indirect psychological meaning for the week just ahead. I'll reserve market comments for videos.

 


 

First, let me mention Apple; because its recent shakeout (no surprise) was a combination of what's discussed publicly, like the boring reception to new iPhone 8 products, and what is not discussed widely, like the faltering sales in China,and impossible price-points versus competitive and simply a very high price (with VAT tax and more) for units in Europe. Over there, as I noted from Barcelona, the iPhone 8 really IS selling better; because the new iPhone X (the one most truly want) will be truly prohibitively priced for most.

This report will now focus on the intricacies of what Apple did and perhaps be of interest primarily to those either owning AAPL shares, the influence on the market, and my take on the particulars of picking up the new iPhone X. 


Which takes me to my new point: today (Saturday) Apple began to allow the online 'pre-qualification' for those participating in their newest variation of an IUP (or iPhone upgrade) program for the upcoming iPhone X. That program is vastly improved over how it was handled in the past. But there's a catch. 


When one uses that program it's not simply zero percent financing (which appeals to the mass market who doesn't want to lay-put $1000-1200 plus tax for the X phone); but another consumer finance loan through Apple's partner bank. However, in some ways it's more expensive than the various similar lease or contract deals with the carriers. And it's deceptive in that it implies checkout will be faster than cash buyers although that's not actually the case, since a buyer (or renter essentially) still has to check out after upgrade qualification. 


Furthermore Apple requires inclusion of AppleCare Plus, which means any 'renter' is actually paying an extra $6-8 a month when they have a normal warranty for the first year included anyway. The coverage is decent for the possibility of glass breakage; however it does not include 'theft' or 'loss' in any form, which thus makes it inferior to AT&T and Verizon insurance plans that are optional (and thus not required for customers). But most buyers do not evaluate these details, and that's good for more Apple profitability. 


Hence (though not my main observation here) the buyers (or say renters) of an iPhone X will pay more for an installment plan from Apple but will have a simplicity of annual change, if that's what they want; with payments waived after 12 have been made. (Personally I buy straight-out so that if I need to put an overseas SIM card in I can without bothering to pre-pay the balance before traveling). However, at this point it doesn't matter as AT&T and Verizon both have decent programs when traveling internationally, or at least Europe, at a flat $10 per day using whatever data you would normally have on your domestic monthly plan. It's disliked by those who only want to check  a map and bingo that's $10, at the same time it's terrific for those of us who use lots of data and want LTE access in many foreign cities where hotel WiFi tends to be mediocre.)     
 



Now back to my point and how it impacts their stock and the markets. What Apple is starting today is essentially an advance credit check for 'X' buyers; who probably don't even consider that using the carrier plans generally puts the cost on their phone bills, and is not really another consumer loan plan. 
However, that observation is probably why Apple is going to make a lot of sales and have a steady annuity stream (perhaps better) than previously; at at time when their trade-up program was clunky and slow to initiate.   

Bottom line 

Apple can now assure a certain amount of phones will be sold every year. That's good for earnings flow indefinitely. Additionally, people will be sure they can get the updated phone and don't have to break the bank to do it. And it rebuffs the constant rhetoric about resistance to buying the X. 

It is a superb way to keep people locked into Apple's ecosystem. It's low-key brilliant as few will realize the extra revenue from the compelled 'AppleCare' program is just more profit for Apple, or that the large carriers usually do not charge an upgrade fee for their versions of those programs. Put it together, and aside from the China issue; I suspect this actually assures a solid sell-out of iPhone X within minutes (figure 2-4 month delivery; now that their COO has flown to sort things out with Foxconn in China this weekend); and the share price moves up with 'relief' that the product was well received. As Apple now is over 20% of the S&P's capitalization; that likely forestalls a market break.


 

In sum, I digress to focus on the big event (for the market not the Nation) next week, which is the iPhone X pre-order launch. There is another event the same day; unless something changes drastically. 

Conclusion

if the market's going to 'bust', it's probably after we get past the iPhone X celebratory 'relief' (it went well) rally; and maybe even the Trump pronounced 'you'll get a tax Bill sooner rather than later' (if so) event. 

Aside from that there is no change in the market's nature although if you really do wish to correlate the measured behavior to 1987; you could move 3-5% or so higher in the S&P and then plunge rather than simply have a correction.  

 

Weekend (final) MarketCast

Midday (intraday) MarketCast   

   

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