Keeping a 'bid' under the market  is what traders are now focusing on; as expiration is out of the way and nobody knows how to weigh prospects for a healthcare bill being passed by the Senate in the week ahead. Given a slew of pressures now, we do think they will actually try getting it done.

Currency markets might continue to have an influence. The ECB gave a more dovish viewpoint than justified; so it seems that Draghi might not be too happy to see the strength in the Euro, which broke above lateral highs I have noted for awhile (along with concurrent Dollar Index weakness). There is a push to convince traders that Euro strength will enable a bid under bank stocks in the US and thus create a rotation helping the Averages. Perhaps. I think they're just looking for a 'bid' under markets; not really liking the banks. 

Currency markets might continue to have an influence here. The ECB gave a more dovish viewpoint than justified; so it seems that Draghi might not be too happy to see the strength in the Euro, which broke above lateral highs I have noted for awhile (along with concurrent Dollar Index weakness). There is a push to convince traders that Euro strength will enable a bid under bank stocks in the US and thus create a rotation helping the averages. Perhaps. I think they're just looking for a 'bid' under markets; not really liking the banks. 

Basically most stocks are trading well above normal multiples; or essentially almost all bullish alternatives built-in, at least for the short-term. The low VIX implies little volatility and more complacency ahead. Now, the week ahead is loaded with earnings reports, so you have a fair possibility that a series of good results help the market grind a bit higher (or try to) during the week. It may even be independent of whether there is healthcare progress or not. 
 

 
However, none of that should be surprising as everyone expects better Q2 results; and hears the 'spin' about synchronized global recovery. First that's not necessarily where economics are at; but the perception. And as such it's in the market, thus may be discounted. So if you get a bunch of 'runups or bounces' on earnings, that are then 'sold-into', it will be a sign of fatigue as well as a big yawn on earnings coming in 'better'. 

But sure, there are a handful of stocks, led by Amazon, that could do some additional heavy lifting and press the S&P a bit higher and we continue just wishing they'd do a dramatic thrust to 2500; get everyone to capitulate more to the buy side and set-up a more reduced-risk trading spot to fade it.
 

Bottom line, without an upside (sort of parabolic) pop; this remains an S&P process of trying to hold the market together even while oil is neutral and a number of FANG stocks are holding-their-own at best. 

We're past nominal expiration and we're into a riskier seasonal time of year (for the next couple months actually); which means more given valuation levels already at pretty high levels. So we're not saying it can't surge a bit more, at the same time as the risk-reward ration is increasingly less attractive for the Bulls. At the same time the process continues and there's a good way down before the Bears would get all excited about trend support being challenged. 
 

If a handful of FANG stocks firm and 'if' Oil firms (banks or no banks) you'll likely have this 'grind' persist a bit further; pending whatever happens with Congress. We do believe people are overzealous or complacent (mostly the latter) and thus remain on guard for the post-pop phase to arrive (a flop). 
 

In sum 

We got the 'pop', while the flop seems not indicated in many ways, but seems like a logical expectation after the expected move into these heights. Not immediately; but as time evolves. It may take the form of erosion rather than an 'event', especially if the Euro stays strong and Oil stays in a range. But it's should be on-hold for the moment, ahead of an earnings parade.