Market Briefing For Friday, March 24
Feels like a 'market hangover' after many months of Trump-based rally, as the languishing alternating shuffles generally have suggested. However, it reminds me a bit of how the markets behaved last year before Elections; 'as if' they were vulnerable after so many rallies that really got nowhere.
In the current scenario what we forecast and got was even more extensions of an overvalued market, when using any combination of trailing or forward earnings (broadly speaking) relative to GDP trends and sluggish economics as we've outlined (and they continue so as they have since last July).
(As of 9 pm EDT Thurs., Trump now wants a vote on Friday)
But one thing changed: there is essentially 'squared' liquidity in many trader favorite markets (credit and currencies included) and that can respond to a vote (or lack of one) in any of several ways, as I review in the 2nd video this evening. That matters as the implication is of a potential 'whipsaw' to those who assume this must simply move up or down depending on up or down in the voting on Healthcare. There are actually more alternatives than that.
Hence we suspect, even though eventual further procedural correction may be logical (we've called for it); we're not requiring it straight-away, and even contemplate an interesting pattern where you could 'get' the Yes vote and it gets sold into; or get a No vote and drop but snap it back rather quickly. Of course if it is simply a 'postponement', then the market waffling persists.
None dare call it treason?
Or dare they call what many politicians have done for decades something of course anathema to acceptable behavior now that technology facilitates so much. Perhaps this is the under-reported story we should point to today; as it could (if it came to it) have a dramatic impact on Washington and markets.
London's Independent is reporting that former president George W Bush's senior ethics lawyer has suggested that the FBI is "uncovering evidence of treason" by far right US news websites over their links with Russia. Notable not just because I've essentially suggested the same thing (but not specific websites) for some time and predating last year's political campaign too.
The article (you'd think politically motivated, but if substantive does matter) suggests that the FBI was looking into whether some generally conservative or right-wing news outlets (they named Breitbart News, InfoWars and some say the Kremlin-backed RT News and Sputnik News) to see whether they worked with Russian-backed operatives to disseminate stories favoring the candidacy of Donald Trump during the presidential campaign.. particularly at times when his campaign appeared to be struggling.
I'll not opine further other than having noted (a year or two ago about) news of two English-speaking anchors quitting RT News and fleeing Moscow after (at one) did on live-TV in the middle of an evening Moscow newscast (bravo for her; and I was surprised not to see her 'pop-up' at FOX or SkyNews). Of course this could actually be a serious story; so the pertinent part might be a portion not mentioned whether or not 'active' members of the Campaign of course colluded with the Russians (of course Bannon talked with Breitbart) while in service to the campaign and whether that's even illegal (treason is a bit strong of a word to use; therefore the Independent may be stretching a term generally reserved for subversive undertakings for which influence and political posturing may be a stretch for that terminology, not abhorrent itself).
Part of the problem is that 'the other side' may well have engaged in more scurrilous underhanded intrigue; to-wit, non-disclosure of Saudi Arabian or other influences, which impacted not just campaign trends, but perhaps the continued sale of weaponry to the very parties that fund or fight the civilized world. However, now we have an Administration that is clearly pointed to a resurgence of the United States, rather than it's further global decay. That's of course irked those undermining our society (even if naively believing that excess globalism and dependence on Mideast Oil that's we've now finally escaped), and they are grasping at any straws to destabilize Pres. Trump's Administration and without concern of the harm that brings to the Nation if they were able to accomplish it. So if there's fire where there's smoke, well that's the 'black swan' to watch, even more so than the Healthcare vote.
Bottom-line: as of early Thursday evening there is talk of no Healthcare vote until Monday, with nothing brought to the House Floor as of yet.
Disclosure: None.