Market Briefing For Friday, August 5

Gridlock at high levels merely gives an illusion of being supportive for stock price levels. Sure, in theory it can allow overbought short-term conditions to be technically wound down; but it has no impact on stocks from a longer-term valuation viewpoint.

Perhaps today's decision by New Jersey to cut by half their hedge fund investments (in their pension funds) reflects the frustration over performance, but also what they just might rightly see as an overvaluation. Generally those who are shifting 'now' to an approach of real property (like rental income buildings or commercial) is occurring in an also-extended market; making the point that there are few bargains around now.

Has the world fundamentally changed? Yes; excessively easy monetary policy that's not really conducive to private sector growth has become counterproductive for just about all investments other than financial assets, which have fully ballooned without a concurrent increase in entrepreneurial opportunism, or average household levels of income. This is all part of the disparity that results what I call the reality 'disconnect'.

The resolution of this quandary for the markets typically needs to be either that people in the near-term are suddenly going to make lots more money; or financial asset prices are not stoically going to merely hover at high levels, but come down to Earth at least somewhat.

This doesn't have to be a 'crash', but it can be a 'process' taking time. But we also know the 'risk' of algorithmic changes, no longer benefiting from underpinned central bank policies (look how the UK sold off after Thursday morning's rate cut after the initial rise), which can result in a rather rapid unwinding as signals are generated.

Bottom line: the market is 'sort-of' still on-hold ahead of the morning jobs number. It should not be a barn-burner and regardless of knee-jerk reaction; should see market pressures at least attempted later in the session. There is no change in the overall assessment of the market's ongoing 'tape tension', with the internal high quite likely behind, as argued and actually now due for a more volatile erosion.

Disclosure: None.

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