Jefferies analyst Randal Konik admits the market knows Nike needs to lower its growth expectations. The analyst, however, views the company's "ubiquitous distribution" as the "real canary in the coal mine." Further, the market share gains by Adidas (ADDYY) are "unrelenting," Konik told investors earlier in a research note. He sees earnings and multiple risk ahead for Nike as the market views the company as more "cyclical" and less of a "staple." The analyst has a base case of $48 per share and downside case of $35 per share. The latter's probability is increasing as share losses mount, Konik writes in his note titled

"3 ISSUES HERE: Distro Model Extended, Share Loss Rising, Valuation Expensive." The analyst keeps a Hold rating on Nike with a $48 price target. The stock in early trading is up 1% to $53.34.