International Business Machines: A High-Yield Dividend Achiever

International Business Machines (IBM) is a major information technology company that is listed in the Dow Jones index. It belongs to the Dividend Achievers, a group of companies that have raised their dividends for at least 10 years in a row.

These Dividend Achievers do not have a dividend growth record that is as prestigious as that of the Dividend Kings or Dividend Champions, but these companies can still be attractive income investments. There are more than 260 Dividend Achievers from many different industries that are worthy of a closer look.

Company Overview          

International Business Machines is active in several segments of the giant information technology industry. IBM’s business units include Cognitive Solutions, Global Business Services, Technology Services & Cloud Platforms, and Systems. IBM was founded more than 100 years ago and is currently valued at $130 billion.

During the second quarter, IBM grossed revenues of $20 billion, 4% more than during the previous year’s Q2. Earnings per share totaled $3.08 during Q2, 5% more than during the previous year’s quarter.

Growth Prospects      

IBM has a long track record, the company managed to grow for many decades. Its profits per share peaked in 2014, though, and have been declining since. This is partially due to the fact that some of IBM’s markets got more competitive, which pressured margins, and partially due to the fact that IBM has sold several non-core businesses.

Management has been working on a turnaround for a couple of years, and it looks like things will get better in the future. After years of revenue declines, IBM’s top line is growing again, and profits are rising as well.

One important factor for IBM’s growth in the coming years are its so-called Strategic Imperatives. This includes higher-growth businesses such as its cloud offerings and its analytics business. As these business units continue to grow at an above-average pace it seems likely that IBM’s sales will continue to rise. The company also keeps buying back its own shares. The resulting decline in IBM’s share count is a positive for IBM’s earnings per share growth.

Valuation, Dividends, And Expected Returns

IBM will likely earn a little bit less than $14 per share this year, which means that shares are trading for just above 10 times this year’s earnings right now. Compared to the historic median earnings multiple of slightly above 12 this means a discount of 15-20% to fair value. IBM’s share price will most likely be positively impacted by multiple normalizations going forward.

IBM has raised its dividend substantially over the last couple of years. Coupled with a share price that has not moved a lot this has made IBM’s dividend yield rise to 4.4%, which is more than twice the broad market’s dividend yield.

Through a combination of earnings per share growth of ~5%, some multiple expansion (~3% if IBM’s valuation returns to the historic median over the next five years) and its dividend yield of 4.4% IBM could produce annual returns of 12%-13% over the coming five years.

Final Thoughts

IBM’s track record over the last couple of years has not been overly convincing, but results have started to improve again. On the back of strong growth of its Strategic Imperatives IBM should be able to generate at least some earnings growth over the coming years.

Since shares are very inexpensive the downside seems limited, and investors get a 4.4% dividend yield while waiting for share prices to rise. It looks like this Dividend Achiever will produce compelling, low-double-digits total returns over the coming five years. 

Disclaimer: Sure Dividend is published as an information service. It includes opinions as to buying, selling and holding various stocks and other securities. However, the publishers of Sure ...

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Chee Hin Teh 5 years ago Member's comment

Many thanks Sir